What percentage of five-star recruits get drafted?

By Jason Bolton June 23, 2023 09:45

Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images

College football recruiting is a high-stakes game that can make or break a team's success. One of the most important factors in recruiting is the ranking of prospects, with five-star recruits being the most coveted. But just how likely are these top prospects to make it to the next level? In this article, we'll explore the percentage of five-star recruits who get drafted and what that means for college football programs.

According to On3's Draft by Stars data, five-star recruits have a 63% draft rate over the past five years. This is significantly higher than three-star recruits, who have a draft rate of only 5.3%. Four-star recruits fall somewhere in the middle, with a 5.2 times higher likelihood of getting drafted than two-star recruits. These stats suggest that star rankings from recruiting media companies do matter in NFL draft success, and a higher ranking can give a player a better chance of being drafted.

But what about the retention rate of five-star players once they make it to the NFL? Rivals.com's recruiting class of 2002 found that 52% of 5-star players get drafted, and 75.2% of those players are retained by the NFL. This means that a 5-star recruit has a 39% chance of "sticking" in the league, which is a relatively high percentage compared to other classifications. Additionally, there is a statistical difference between landing a player in the top half of his 5-star class than one in the bottom half. This underscores the importance of recruiting not just any five-star player, but the best of the best.

Of course, recruiting rankings can change throughout the year, and there are many other factors that can impact a team's success. For example, a team's coaching staff, facilities, and location can all play a role in attracting top recruits. Additionally, a player's performance in college can greatly impact their draft stock, regardless of their high school ranking. Therefore, while recruiting is an important aspect of college football, it is not the only factor that determines success on the field.

That being said, the percentage of five-star recruits who get drafted is still an important metric for college programs to consider. For example, Alabama currently holds the #1 spot in recruiting rankings, in large part due to their success in landing top five-star prospects. Other notable recruiting classes include Texas A&M, Clemson, and LSU. These programs have all had recent success on the field and in the NFL draft, suggesting that recruiting top talent can have a significant impact on a team's ability to compete at the highest level.

In conclusion, the percentage of five-star recruits who get drafted is a crucial aspect of recruiting in college football. While a higher ranking can give a player a better chance of being drafted, there are many other factors that can impact a team's success. Therefore, college programs must carefully consider all aspects of recruiting to build a successful program. However, with the high percentage of five-star recruits who make it to the NFL, it's clear that landing top talent can have a significant impact on a team's future success.