Group of 5 Playoff Push: Can Boise State or Tulane Crash the Expanded College Football Playoff?

By Jason Bolton June 11, 2025 10:11

With the College Football Playoff expanding to 12 teams in 2025, the Group of 5 (G5) programs are eyeing a historic opportunity to break into the national championship conversation. Traditionally overshadowed by Power Five conferences, the G5’s guaranteed playoff spot for the highest-ranked conference champion has intensified the competition among elite mid-major programs. Leading the charge are Boise State and Tulane, two teams with strong pedigrees and high expectations. But can either crash the expanded playoff and make a deep run?

Boise State: The Consistent Contender

Boise State enters the 2025 season as the projected favorite to represent the Mountain West and the G5 at large. The Broncos finished 2024 inside the AP Top 10 for the fifth time in program history, earning a first-round bye in last year’s CFP. According to ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI), Boise State is projected to finish 9.6-3.1, maintaining their status as a perennial G5 powerhouse.

Quarterback Spencer Danielson returns to lead an offense that lost key contributors like NFL-bound running back Ashton Jeanty but retains much of its core. The Broncos’ blend of experience and talent, coupled with a strong defense, positions them as the team to beat in the G5 race. Their schedule, while challenging, is manageable compared to other contenders, giving Boise State a solid path to the playoff.

Tulane: The Rising AAC Power

Tulane has emerged as a formidable force in the American Athletic Conference (AAC), finishing 9-5 in 2024 and reaching their third consecutive conference championship game. Under second-year head coach Jon Sumrall, the Green Wave have built a culture of consistency and resilience. Despite losing offensive stars like quarterback Darian Mensah and running back Makhi Hughes to transfers, Tulane’s defense remains a strength, anchored by one of the best defensive lines in recent memory.

Tulane’s FPI ranking sits at No. 36 nationally, with a projected record of 9.4-3.3, the highest among AAC teams. The Green Wave face a tough schedule, including Power Five opponents Ole Miss and Duke, both ranked higher. A win against either would significantly boost their playoff credentials. Sumrall acknowledges the challenge: “We have to prove we belong on the biggest stage. Beating a Power Five team is the key to silencing doubters.”

The G5 Playoff Landscape

The expanded playoff guarantees the highest-ranked G5 conference champion a spot, but the margin for error is slim. Memphis, UNLV, and South Florida also loom as dark horses, making the race highly competitive. ESPN’s FPI model highlights Boise State and Tulane as the frontrunners, but notes the absence of a clear juggernaut, which could open the door for an upset.

Both programs face the challenge of proving their worth against Power Five competition, a hurdle that has historically limited G5 teams’ playoff opportunities. Tulane’s lack of a recent Power Five regular-season win since 2022 underscores this point, while Boise State’s consistent top-10 finishes have earned them respect but not a championship berth.

Can They Crash the Playoff?

Boise State’s stability, returning talent, and favorable schedule give them a slight edge in the G5 playoff race. However, Tulane’s defensive prowess and coaching continuity under Sumrall make them a legitimate threat capable of pulling off signature wins that elevate their profile.

As Bill Connelly of ESPN notes, “The Group of Five race is wide open this year. With no clear dominant team, it’s about who can seize the moment and beat the Power Five teams on their schedule.”

In the end, the expanded playoff offers Boise State and Tulane their best shot in years to break through. Whether it’s the Broncos’ consistency or the Green Wave’s rising momentum, one thing is certain: the Group of 5’s playoff push will be one of the most compelling storylines of the 2025 college football season.