Predicting the 2025 Heisman Trophy Winner

By Jason Bolton April 28, 2025 22:07

With the 2025 college football season on the horizon, the Heisman Trophy competition is already heating up. As the transfer portal reshapes rosters and blue-chip quarterbacks burst into the forefront, this year's race is wide open. But if early odds and expert commentators are any indication, Texas quarterback Arch Manning will be the new face of college football's most prestigious individual award.

The Odds-On Favorite

Arch Manning is the huge favorite to capture the Heisman, with most top sportsbooks listing him between +700 and +900 to claim the award. That's well in front of his closest challengers, like LSU's Garrett Nussmeier (+800) and Clemson's Cade Klubnik (+1000 to +1100). The hype in Austin is palpable, as Manning prepares to take over full-time for Quinn Ewers and quarterback a Texas team that's made back-to-back College Football Playoff appearances.

Manning’s pedigree is impossible to ignore. As the former No. 1 recruit in the country and the latest in a legendary football family, he brings not only name recognition but also a skill set that’s drawn rave reviews from coaches and analysts alike. “He has all the tools to take his place as one of the nation’s premiere offensive players,” CBS Sports wrote, noting Manning’s blend of arm talent, mobility, and football IQ.

Production Meets Potential

While Manning has only two career starts, his impact in limited action last season was undeniable. He accounted for 13 total touchdowns (including four rushing scores) and over 1,000 total yards, often stepping in for an injured Ewers and keeping the Longhorns’ offense humming. In one key relief appearance, Manning threw for five touchdowns, showing poise and playmaking ability under pressure.

The Texas offense is loaded with talent, and Steve Sarkisian’s system is proven to put quarterbacks in position to shine. With a deep receiving corps and a strong offensive line, Manning will have every opportunity to put up the gaudy numbers Heisman voters crave. “Many Texas fans will tell you they found Manning far more effective on the field than Ewers in 2024 and are excited for the 2025 campaign,” noted BetMGM’s Heisman Watch.

The Competition

Garrett Nussmeier of LSU is Manning’s primary challenger, coming off a season where he threw for 4,052 yards and 29 touchdowns in the SEC. If he can cut down on turnovers, Nussmeier could easily secure a trip to New York. Clemson’s Cade Klubnik, another former blue-chip recruit, is also in the mix after a breakout season that saw him lead the Tigers to an ACC title.

Ohio State’s Jeremiah Smith (+1200), considered the best wide receiver in the country, and Oregon’s Dante Moore (+1600 to +1800), who inherits a high-powered Ducks offense, round out the top tier of contenders. But history is on the side of quarterbacks: nine of the last ten Heisman winners have played the position.

What It Will Take

Recent Heisman history suggests that team success is nearly as important as individual stats. While three of the last four winners missed the College Football Playoff, the award often goes to the best player on a national contender. Texas is projected as a playoff favorite, and if Manning leads the Longhorns to another double-digit win season, he’ll have the narrative and the numbers to win over voters.

Manning’s humility may be his secret weapon. “I feel I haven’t accomplished enough in college football to warrant the level of attention I’ve gotten,” he said in a recent interview, signaling a focus on team goals over personal accolades.

The Bottom Line

The 2025 Heisman Trophy race is loaded with talent, but Arch Manning’s combination of pedigree, opportunity, and supporting cast make him the safest bet. If he lives up to the hype and delivers for Texas, expect to see the Manning legacy add another chapter in New York this December. As the season unfolds, all eyes will be on Austin-and the next great Manning under center.