The 2025 NFL season is shaping up to be one of the most competitive in recent memory, but as always, some teams are receiving more praise than perhaps warranted, while others are flying under the radar. Based on current projections, stats, and expert analysis, here’s a look at the most overrated and underrated NFL teams heading into the new campaign.
Most Overrated NFL Teams in 2025
Kansas City Chiefs
Despite the Chiefs’ perennial status as a Super Bowl contender, some analysts believe their hype may be slightly inflated this year. ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) places Kansas City firmly in the top tier with a strong offense led by Patrick Mahomes, but the margin between them and other elite teams like Philadelphia and Baltimore is razor-thin. The Chiefs’ defense remains a question mark, and with the AFC West becoming increasingly competitive, their path to the playoffs is less certain than it appears.
Veteran analyst Seth Walder noted, “The Chiefs have the firepower on offense, but their defense could be exploited by the league’s best offenses. Overreliance on Mahomes’ magic might not be sustainable in 2025.” This cautionary stance suggests that while the Chiefs remain dangerous, they may not be the overwhelming favorites some expect.
Washington Commanders
Ranked sixth in ESPN’s FPI, the Commanders have been lauded for their strong roster and coaching staff. However, there’s a notable drop-off in rating points between them and the top five teams, signaling skepticism about their true championship potential. Their offense, while talented, lacks the consistency of the elite squads, and their defense, though improved, still faces depth concerns.
NFL reporter Mike Clay commented, “The Commanders have built a solid foundation, but the jump from playoff team to Super Bowl contender is significant. Expect them to compete but not necessarily dominate.”
Most Underrated NFL Teams in 2025
San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers are widely regarded as the team most poised for a “worst-to-first” turnaround in 2025. After a disappointing 6-11 record in 2024, their odds to win the NFC West stand at nearly 36%, with a 62% chance to make the playoffs. What makes them underrated is the context behind last season’s struggles: the 49ers led the NFL in adjusted games lost to injury, including key players like Christian McCaffrey and Trent Williams.
Their schedule is the easiest in the league, facing NFC South and AFC South teams, plus weaker squads like the Giants and Browns. ESPN’s FPI ranks them ninth overall, a strong indicator that their talent level is higher than their record suggests. Analyst Ryan Clark remarked, “If the 49ers get healthy, they could be a dominant force again. Their defense and revamped offense have the pieces to challenge anyone.”
Chicago Bears
The Bears are another team flying under the radar. After finishing 5-12 in 2024, they’ve made significant offseason moves, including upgrading their offensive line and gaining valuable experience with quarterback Caleb Williams. Their odds to make the playoffs have jumped to 36%, with a 15% chance to win the NFC North.
New coach Ben Johnson brings optimism, though experts caution that new coaching staffs often require adjustment time. Still, the Bears’ potential to surprise is real, especially given their tough schedule and the competitive NFC North. Clay noted, “The Bears have quietly improved and could be a dark horse in the NFC.”
The 2025 NFL season promises a fascinating mix of established powers and emerging challengers. While the Chiefs and Commanders carry lofty expectations, their limitations suggest they may be slightly overrated. Meanwhile, the 49ers and Bears, bolstered by improved health and strategic moves, are poised to exceed expectations and shake up the playoff landscape.
As the season unfolds, the true strength of these teams will become clearer, but current projections underscore the dynamic and unpredictable nature of the NFL’s competitive balance in 2025.
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