Biggest Busts of the 2025 Fantasy Football Season: Players Who Completely Underperformed

The neon glow of the Las Vegas Strip hums outside the Mandalay Bay Convention Center, where fantasy football diehards descend each November for the FFPC main event. But inside, the vibe is more funeral than fiesta for the managers who reached for A.J. Brown in Round 2 or staked their season on Brian Thomas Jr.'s rookie flash. It's Week 12 of the 2025 NFL season, and the playoff push is in full swing, but for those who whiffed on high picks, it's already a postmortem. The biggest busts aren't just underperformers they're the ghosts haunting your roster, the ADP landmines that turned contenders into cellar-dwellers.

We've crunched the numbers: ADP from August drafts across ESPN, Yahoo and Sleeper, versus actual half-PPR production through 11 weeks. The gap is brutal. A first-round stud averaging 12 fantasy points per game (PPG) instead of 20? That's not regression; that's robbery. As one FFPC champ, anonymous after a 4-7 slide, tweeted post-Week 10: "Drafted like a GM, managed like a chump. Blame Brown, Thomas and Etienne. Send help." Here's the hit list of 2025's most soul-crushing disappointments healthy players only, no injury excuses who torched draft capital and trust.

No. 10: Kyler Murray, QB, Cardinals (ADP: QB8 / 45 overall | Actual: QB24, 15.8 PPG) Murray was the mobile QB savior fantasy managers craved after his 2024 efficiency spike (4.8% TD rate, 500 rushing yards). Drafted as a top-10 signal-caller, he entered Week 12 with just 18 total TDs and a league-worst 1.2% interception rate on deep balls. Arizona's offense ranks 28th in pass plays, and Murray's 6.2 yards per attempt is a career low. "He's holding the ball too long, and that O-line is Swiss cheese," Cardinals beat writer Kent Somers said after a Week 9 dud (187 yards, two picks vs. Bears). Murray's averaged 16.2 PPG since Week 6, middling for a guy you paid a premium for upside. Bounce-back potential? Marvin Harrison Jr.'s emergence helps, but at this ADP gap (QB16 vs. actual), he's droppable in two-QB leagues.

No. 9: James Conner, RB, Cardinals (ADP: RB12 / 32 overall | Actual: RB35, 10.4 PPG) Conner defied Father Time in 2024 with 1,084 rushing yards and 15 TDs, earning a three-year extension. Fantasy owners bought the encore, but Arizona's Trey Benson a 2024 fourth-rounder vultured 45% of goal-line carries through 11 weeks. Conner's 3.9 yards per carry is down from 4.7 last year, and he's fumbled four times (league high for RBs). "Age-30 season, plus that backfield split it's a recipe for disappointment," ESPN analyst Field Yates noted on Fantasy Focus. With 112 carries to Benson's 98, Conner's volume is there (14 touches/game), but efficiency evaporated. He's RB2 filler now, not the flex stud you drafted.

No. 8: Travis Etienne Jr., RB, Jaguars (ADP: RB10 / 28 overall | Actual: RB42, 9.2 PPG) Etienne's 2024 explosion (1,008 yards, 12 TDs) screamed workhorse, but Jacksonville's tank job 2-9 record exposed the mirage. Tank Bigsby (4.6 YPC vs. Etienne's 3.7) and Bhayshul Tuten split carries 55/45, leaving Etienne at 11.3 touches/game, his lowest since 2022. "The script's negative every week; he's chasing, not grinding," Jaguars OC Press Taylor lamented after a Week 7 eight-carry clunker. Etienne's 5.1% receiving share is down too, with only two TDs all season. At ADP, you expected RB1 flex; reality's RB4 in PPR. Trade him if you can Doug Pederson's seat is hot, but the run game won't rebound.

No. 7: Justin Herbert, QB, Chargers (ADP: QB7 / 40 overall | Actual: QB25, 15.1 PPG) Herbert's arm talent screamed top-12 QB after a 2024 QB14 finish, but Jim Harbaugh's run-first scheme (No. 1 rushing offense) caps his ceiling. Through 11 weeks, he's attempted just 28 passes/game (league low) with a 6.8% TD rate solid, but no rushing juice (200 yards total). "It's like watching a Ferrari in a school zone," Chargers insider Jeff Miller quipped. A Week 10 INT-fest (three picks, 142 yards) vs. Titans epitomized the frustration. Ladd McConkey's emergence helps, but at this ADP, Herbert's a QB2 masquerading as elite. Stream him; don't start him in playoffs.

No. 6: Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Dolphins (ADP: QB9 / 48 overall | Actual: QB22, 16.4 PPG) Tua's 2024 passing yards crown (4,624) fueled QB1 hype, but Miami's O-line woes ranked 31st in sacks allowed have him scrambling more than slinging. His 7.1 YPA is a three-year low, with just 19 TDs and five INTs. "Pressure up front kills rhythm; he's checkdown city now," Dolphins reporter Barry Jackson said. Weeks 4-6 averaged 14.2 PPG, buried by Tyreek Hill's hamstring saga. At ADP, you banked on efficiency; instead, it's QB3 volume without the pop. Tua rebounds in shootouts, but avoid in must-wins.

No. 5: DJ Moore, WR, Bears (ADP: WR12 / 35 overall | Actual: WR48, 9.8 PPG) Moore's 2024 WR8 finish (1,364 yards) screamed encore, but Caleb Williams' rookie woes (55% completion) and a crowded Bears WR room (Rome Odunze, Keenan Allen) diluted his targets (6.8/game, down from 8.2). His 11.2 yards/reception is pedestrian, with three TDs total. "Ben Johnson's scheme spreads the ball; Moore's not the alpha anymore," Bears analyst Jeff Hughes noted. A 42-yard Week 9 dud vs. Lions? Brutal. ADP owners expected WR2; he's flex scraps. Trade low Odunze's rising.

No. 4: Nico Collins, WR, Texans (ADP: WR8 / 25 overall | Actual: WR42, 10.6 PPG) Collins torched for 1,297 yards and eight TDs in 2024, but C.J. Stroud's sophomore slump (5.9% TD rate) and Stefon Diggs' arrival siphoned 25% of his targets. Collins' 7.4 YPA is down from 10.2, with a league-high four drops. "Diggs commands doubles; Nico's stuck in traffic," Texans insider Aaron Wilson said after a two-catch, 18-yard Week 8 stinker. At ADP, he was WR1 upside; now, WR3 floor. Tank Dell lurks too cut bait if playoffs loom.

No. 3: Ja'Marr Chase, WR, Bengals (ADP: WR3 / 12 overall | Actual: WR28, 12.1 PPG) Chase's 2024 WR2 dominance (1,612 yards) had him as a Round 1 lock, but Joe Burrow's Week 2 turf toe sidelined the QB for six games, cratering Cincy's passing attack (22nd in yards). Chase's 6.4 receptions/game is his lowest ever, with Tee Higgins vulturing red-zone looks (four TDs to Chase's two). "Burrow's absence killed the deep game; Chase is scheming for yards now," Bengals beat man Paul Dehner Jr. observed. A 31-yard, zero-TD Week 11 vs. Steelers? Oof. Burrow's back, but at this ADP delta (WR14 vs. actual), Chase is a sell-high trap.

No. 2: Brian Thomas Jr., WR, Jaguars (ADP: WR6 / 18 overall | Actual: WR51, 8.9 PPG) The 2024 rookie sensation (1,082 yards, WR10 finish) screamed sophomore stud, but Jacksonville's 2-9 collapse and Trevor Lawrence's elbow tweak limited BTJ to 52.5 yards/game (down from 75.4). Travis Hunter's addition stole slot snaps, dropping Thomas' target share to 18%. "He's open, but Lawrence isn't delivering," Jags analyst John Shipley tweeted after a one-catch, six-yard dud vs. Colts. Two start-worthy games all year? Brutal for a top-20 pick. Waiver-wire fodder now Christian Kirk owns this room.

No. 1: A.J. Brown, WR, Eagles (ADP: WR4 / 15 overall | Actual: WR39, 11.2 PPG) The undisputed bust king: Brown's 2024 WR3 tear (1,456 yards, 12 TDs) fueled elite ADP, but Philly's post-Super Bowl malaise no rhythm with Jalen Hurts' knee tweak left him at 11 yards/reception on 25 catches through 10 games (missed Week 8 hamstring). DeVonta Smith and Saquon Barkley's arrivals split targets (Brown's 22% share, down from 28%). "Frustrated? Yeah, but it's on us to execute," Brown vented after a one-target, zero-point Week 6 vs. Bucs. WR35 in PPG? For a Round 2 investment? Trade rumors swirl Eagles shopped him midseason. He's WR2 salvageable, but the damage is done.

These busts aren't fatal midseason trades and waiver magic can pivot rosters but they sting. As FantasyPros' consensus ranks show, ADP vs. reality gaps average 25 spots for this crew. Lesson? Diversify early; handcuff your studs. In Vegas, the house always wins but in fantasy, it's the overreaches that bankrupt you. Week 13 looms; dust off the wire, and may your sleepers rise.