NFL Draft 2026 Predictions: Top 10 Picks and Potential Quarterback Surprises

By Jason Bolton January 07, 2026 08:18

As the confetti settles on the 2025 NFL season and teams lick their wounds from Week 18 disappointments, the draft machine revs up. It's January 2026, and with the order set for the top 18 non-playoff picks, the buzz is already electric. This year's class? It's no 2023 bonanza, but don't sleep on it. Wide receivers and edge rushers dominate the blue-chip talent, while the quarterback crop once hyped with names like Arch Manning has delivered curveballs. "This answer requires nuance," ESPN's Field Yates said when ranking the top overall prospect, emphasizing positional value in a class where quarterbacks could dictate the board. With needy teams like the Raiders and Jets holding the keys to No. 1 and 2, expect fireworks. Here's our crystal ball gaze at the top 10 picks, plus the QB surprises that could reshape April's drama in Detroit.

The quarterback class entering 2025 was billed as deep but unproven, with first-year starters like Oregon's Dante Moore and Alabama's Ty Simpson carrying intrigue. Fast-forward: Moore dazzled with 3,280 passing yards, 30 touchdowns, and nine interceptions, completing 72.5% of his throws third in the FBS. "He's poised and accurate," noted Mel Kiper Jr. "I really like his deep-ball touch, and he's good enough with his legs when he needs to scramble." Then there's Indiana's Fernando Mendoza, the Heisman winner who piloted the undefeated Hoosiers to glory. His stat line: 2,980 yards, 39 touchdowns (nation-leading), and just six picks, plus 240 rushing yards. "He has a starting quarterback grade for me, with elements of his game that remind me of Sam Darnold," Yates added.

But surprises abound. Highly touted passers like Texas' Arch Manning, South Carolina's LaNorris Sellers, and Clemson's Cade Klubnik have slid down boards due to inconsistent play and limited starts. "Many of the highly touted passers coming into the season haven't performed as anticipated," Jordan Reid observed, pointing to the emergence of others like Simpson, who threw for over 3,000 yards in his breakout at Alabama. LSU's Garrett Nussmeier (3,500+ yards, 25 TDs) could sneak into Round 1 as a late riser, per PFF rankings where Simpson edges Mendoza and Moore. Even Harvard's Jaden Craig lurks as a mid-round sleeper with pinpoint accuracy. Reid pegs three Round 1 QBs: Moore, Mendoza, and Simpson, but decisions loom Moore and Simpson might return, flipping the script. "The interesting thing about this group is that many... haven't performed as anticipated, leading to the emergence of others," Reid said.

Now, onto the mocks. Based on Tankathon's post-Week 18 order and consensus big boards aggregating 81 sources, here's our projection for the top 10:

Las Vegas Raiders: Fernando Mendoza, QB, Indiana The Silver and Black, mired at 3-14, can't pass on the ready-made leader. Mendoza's poise under pressure evidenced by his 89.5 QBR (second nationally in 2025) makes him the safest bet in a weak class. "Mendoza jumps to the top of the heap," Yates emphasized, citing his high floor. Expect him to start Day 1, ending the Aidan O'Connell experiment.
New York Jets: Dante Moore, QB, Oregon Another 3-14 disaster demands a reset. Moore's effortless arm textbook motion, per scouts profiles as a developmental star with upside. Limited to 675 college dropbacks, he's raw but electric. "What he could become in years 3 and 4 is special," one analyst noted. If Moore stays in school? Jets pivot to a vet like Kirk Cousins.
Arizona Cardinals: Spencer Fano, OT, Utah Kyler Murray's era might be waning, but bolstering the line is priority No. 1. Fano, a 6-5, 305-pound mauler, allowed just two sacks in 2025, anchoring Utah's Pac-12 run. "Arizona is a sneaky team to watch in the quarterback market," but for now, protection trumps signal-caller.
Tennessee Titans: Rueben Bain Jr., EDGE, Miami Will Levis needs help, but defense wins here. Bain's 10.5 sacks and relentless motor scream pro-ready. "He's the safest bet on defense... a Day 1 RDE and 10-year starter," an NFC North scout raved.
New York Giants: Carnell Tate, WR, Ohio State Post-Daniel Jones rebuild demands weapons. Tate's 1,200 yards and 12 TDs evoke Justin Jefferson comparisons. "This sounds wild, but it's on point," Miller said of the LSU-to-NFL parallel.
Cleveland Browns: Caleb Downs, S, Ohio State Deshaun Watson's contract handcuffs them, so fortify the secondary. Downs, with eight interceptions over two seasons, is a ballhawk extraordinaire.
Washington Commanders: Jordyn Tyson, WR, Arizona State Jayden Daniels gets a deep threat. Tyson's 1,100 yards and speed make him a top-10 lock in a loaded WR class.
Chicago Bears: Francis Mauigoa, OT, Miami Caleb Williams' blind side needs shoring. Mauigoa, versatile and athletic, projects as a plug-and-play guard/OT hybrid.
New England Patriots: David Bailey, EDGE, Texas Tech Drake Maye's development hinges on pressure. Bailey's 9.5 sacks and bend/power combo echo top risers.
Jacksonville Jaguars: Mansoor Delane, CB, LSU Trevor Lawrence's squad plugs secondary holes. Delane's four picks and sticky coverage fit the bill.

Trades could upend this Titans might deal down, Browns (with two firsts) climb for a QB. But the real wildcard? Those QB surprises. If Simpson declares, Kiper ranks him QB3 with starter traits; his $2.1 million NIL valuation tempts a return, but a strong combine could vault him top-five. Nussmeier's pocket presence might surprise as a first-round reach for QB-needy squads. And don't overlook sleepers like Craig, whose Ivy League tape screams upside. "The QB1 conversation is not open and closed," Yates noted, hinting at scheme fits deciding fates.

In a draft where WRs could see five in the top 15 and edges dominate Day 1, the quarterback carousel steals the show. As Reid put it, this class has "its share of surprises." Come April, expect the unexpected—these signal-callers could make or break franchises.