Salary Cap Crunch: Which Teams Are in Trouble for 2026?

By Jason Bolton June 29, 2025 14:10

The 2026 salary cap landscape across major sports leagues is shaping up to be a challenging puzzle for several teams, with some franchises facing significant financial constraints that could force tough roster decisions. Despite increases in salary caps in leagues like the NHL and NBA, the pressure to balance star player contracts, emerging talent, and dead money commitments is mounting.

NHL: Four Teams Facing Notable Salary Cap Crunches

The NHL salary cap is set to rise to $88.5 million for the 2025-26 season, providing some relief compared to pandemic-impacted years. However, teams like the Dallas Stars, Edmonton Oilers, Colorado Avalanche, and Florida Panthers remain under intense salary cap pressure.

The Dallas Stars, for example, enter the offseason with just about $5.9 million in cap space and only 15 players signed. General Manager Jim Nill’s acquisition of star winger Mikko Rantanen, with his $12 million contract, has been crucial to their playoff success but also a major cap commitment. The Stars must navigate re-signing key unrestricted free agents like Matt Duchene and Jamie Benn, while also accommodating rising contracts for young talents like Jake Oettinger and Wyatt Johnston. Duchene’s situation is particularly complex, as he is owed over $6.5 million next season from a previous buyout, which may influence his willingness to accept a discounted deal with Dallas.
The Colorado Avalanche previously made a high-profile trade involving Rantanen due to cap constraints, signaling the kind of difficult decisions teams will face again in 2026.

NFL: Minnesota Vikings Among the Most Pressured

In the NFL, the salary cap for 2026 is projected at around $311 million, but several teams are already over or perilously close to the limit. The Minnesota Vikings are reportedly nearly $26 million over the cap for 2026, the tightest situation in the league. This forces the Vikings to consider moving on from aging veterans or restructuring contracts, as they did with Kirk Cousins and Danielle Hunter in previous seasons to avoid deeper financial trouble.

The New Orleans Saints provide a cautionary tale. They have leveraged themselves heavily on older players like Cameron Jordan and Alvin Kamara, who collectively carry $35 million in dead money for 2026 despite declining performance. The Saints face a tough choice between paying nearly $50 million in cash to quarterback Derek Carr or absorbing a $60 million dead cap hit if they cut him. This kind of financial deadweight severely limits roster flexibility.

NBA: Salary Cap Growth but Limited Flexibility

The NBA salary cap is projected to increase by 10% to approximately $154.6 million for the 2025-26 season, with the luxury tax threshold rising to $187.9 million. While this growth is the maximum allowed and provides some breathing room, many contending teams remain close to the tax apron, limiting their ability to add significant new contracts.

Only the Brooklyn Nets are expected to have more than $50 million in cap space next year, despite a star-studded free agent class including LeBron James, Kyrie Irving, and James Harden, all with player options for the upcoming season. Teams will need to be creative in managing their rosters to stay competitive without incurring heavy luxury tax penalties.

Conclusion: Strategic Cap Management is Key

As James Carrey’s research on NFL salary and performance data suggests, strategic management of player compensation is directly linked to team success. The salary cap forces teams to balance paying for elite talent while maintaining roster depth and flexibility. The 2026 offseason will test front offices’ ability to navigate these financial constraints, with teams like the Dallas Stars, Minnesota Vikings, and New Orleans Saints facing particularly tough decisions.

In the words of an NHL analyst on the Dallas Stars’ predicament: “They’re one of the favorites to win the Stanley Cup this year, and no doubt are fine with their upcoming salary cap predicament. But they will need to make some tough decisions to remain under the salary cap”