Can Baker Mayfield Win NFL MVP in the 2025-26 Season? Here’s Why

By Jason Bolton June 05, 2025 09:17

Baker Mayfield’s 2025-26 NFL season has sparked renewed debate about his potential to win the league’s most prestigious individual award: the MVP. After a career marked by ups and downs, Mayfield’s recent performances with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers suggest he could be a dark horse candidate for MVP honors this year. But does the data and context support this possibility?

A Statistical Resurgence

Mayfield’s 2024 season was arguably his best to date. He threw for an impressive 4,500 yards, ranking third in the NFL, and tossed 41 touchdowns, tied for second-best in the league. His passer rating stood at a solid 106.8, placing him 13th among quarterbacks, while completing 71.4% of his passes. These numbers reflect a significant leap from his earlier years, where inconsistency and turnovers often marred his play.

Moreover, Mayfield averaged 264.7 passing yards per game and helped the Buccaneers score an average of 29.5 points per game, the fourth-highest in the league. His ability to combine yardage with scoring efficiency makes him a critical offensive weapon for Tampa Bay.

Team Success and MVP Considerations

One of the key factors in MVP voting is team success. The Buccaneers finished the 2024 season with a 10-7 record, securing a playoff spot in the competitive NFC South. While not dominant, this record is respectable and places Tampa Bay in the postseason conversation. Historically, MVP winners often lead their teams to at least a top playoff seed, but exceptions exist when individual performances are extraordinary.

Mayfield’s leadership has been pivotal in Tampa Bay’s offensive resurgence. His ability to avoid costly turnovers throwing 16 interceptions over 17 games, a manageable 2.8% interception rate shows improved decision-making. This balance between aggression and prudence is vital for MVP-caliber play.

Comparisons and Challenges

Despite these promising stats, Mayfield faces stiff competition in the MVP race. The league boasts several elite quarterbacks with superior overall efficiency and team records. Players like Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, and Joe Burrow continue to set high bars in both statistics and wins.

Mayfield’s career trajectory also factors into voters’ perceptions. Since entering the league as the first overall pick in 2018, he has yet to secure a playoff win or a division title. He has zero Super Bowl rings, a metric often considered in MVP debates, although not determinative.

Quotes and Expert Opinions

Mayfield himself has expressed confidence in his growth and the Buccaneers’ potential. “I feel like I’m playing the best football of my life,” he said in a recent interview. “We have a great group, and I’m ready to keep pushing to get this team where it needs to be.”

Analysts note that Mayfield’s improved pocket presence and chemistry with his receivers have been key to his success. ESPN’s NFL analyst remarked, “Baker’s 2024 season showed he can be a top-tier quarterback when everything clicks. If Tampa Bay continues to improve, he could be in the MVP conversation.”

While Baker Mayfield’s statistical output and team performance in 2024-25 have elevated his profile, winning the NFL MVP in the 2025-26 season remains a challenging prospect. He has demonstrated the ability to produce elite numbers and lead a competitive team, but the presence of other standout quarterbacks and the Buccaneers’ modest record may limit his chances.

Nonetheless, if Mayfield sustains or improves his performance, particularly by leading Tampa Bay deeper into the playoffs, the MVP award could be within reach. His journey from a polarizing figure to a legitimate contender embodies the unpredictability and excitement of the NFL season ahead.

In summary, Baker Mayfield’s MVP candidacy hinges on continued statistical excellence, team success, and overcoming the shadow of more established stars. The 2025-26 season will reveal whether “Thug Nasty” can truly rise to the league’s pinnacle.