2024 Fantasy Football Strategy: Why You Should Wait to Draft a Quarterback
2024 Fantasy Football Strategy: Why You Should Wait to Dr...
By Keith Mado September 09, 2024 04:00
Like the NFL game, fantasy football has changed a lot over time. With each new season, strategies are further refined as operators seek to maximize their little dispositional control. When it comes to the most controversial strategy in 2024, one has to wonder: when do we strike on QB? Quarterbacks are typically viewed as the face of the NFL, but their fantasy football existence can be a whole different world.
Quarterback: It Makes Sense to Wait
Depth of the Position
This may be the most substantial depth we have seen at the quarterback spot in NFL History. The NFL has seen the number of dual-threat quarterbacks rise, and the league has evolved into one that passes more often, which means multiple quarterbacks can provide a decent return in fantasy. This depth enables fantasy managers to unearth value in the later rounds, where other positions may not have as much of a safety net.
Positional Value
In fantasy football, a player is often more or less valuable based on how well he performs compared to other players. With more variance in fantasy points, the top-tier players at running back and wide receiver are better than those around them. This makes locking in so many elite players at positions often providing the most return on investment early preeminent.
Opportunity Cost
If you take a quarterback early, that's typically passing up on the top RBs or WRs. These are higher-injury and more volatile positions, so it is as important to be deep here. Managers who wait on a QB do so to build more balance and depth throughout their roster.
Statistical Analysis
By comparison, the difference between would-be RB1 and an average second-round pick was more than 10 points. This disparity perhaps demonstrates why drafting other positions earlier is a better move.
On top of that, the rise to prominence and success as passers and runners in college for quarterbacks like Jalen Hurts even further opens up the pool of potential fantasy-worthy signal-callers. Such players generally fall into the range of Round 3 or beyond and represent quality value.
Comparisons to Other Positions
Running Backs
As the adage goes, fantasy teams are built on running backs. Workhorse running backs are even more valuable than ever, with the NFL trending towards a passing league. The fact that running back is so scarce at the top of drafts means you should focus on those elite options early in your draft.
Wide Receivers
The depth at wide receiver is there, but the cream of that crop separates itself by a huge gap. Guys like Justin Jefferson and Ja'Marr Chase show they have the upside to be weekly dominant, so those with early-round equity are in play. That said, some wideouts should bring in consistent production, and others even elite-level numbers if you can land one of the top-flight receivers.
Tight Ends
Tight end is probably one of the most top-heavy positions in fantasy football, as there are only a handful of consistently elite players that you can rely on. This is how waiting on a quarterback will let managers grab those elite tight ends early into the draft and get an edge at a position with few difference-makers.
Potential Risks and Rewards
Risks
Injuries: If you wait to select a quarterback, you might draft a player with a higher injury risk and less track record.
Upside Limitations: You can find some value in later-round pick quarterbacks, but the upside is that they aren't there, like with a top-tier option such as Mahomes or Josh Allen.
Rewards
Balanced Roster Managers who wait to draft a running back or start 12 12-team flex league strategy create balanced rosters that can compete with injuries and beat weeks.
There is much more value to waiting until 2024 to draft your QB if positioned correctly in fantasy. The reasoning for such is because of the positional depth and that with some riskier position picks, you can still get elite talent there. While not without risk, the upside of a deep and flexible roster is significant. Fantasy managers have an advantage in the era of advanced metrics; information that helps predict what's likely to happen on Sundays is widely available. And, now having a good grip on NFL jobs and trade winds as camps open around the league, they are at their best when slinging said most valuable resource.
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