Will UFC Make a Deal With Netflix? Breaking Down the High-Stakes Negotiations
Will UFC Make a Deal With Netflix? Breaking Down the High-Stakes Negotiations
By Ali Hammad April 28, 2025 21:22
The UFC’s broadcast future hangs in the balance as its exclusive negotiation window with ESPN closed in April 2025, opening the door for potential deals with streaming giants like Netflix. With ESPN reportedly hesitant to meet the UFC’s $1 billion-per-year asking price amid declining pay-per-view (PPV) buys, the promotion is eyeing a seismic shift in its media strategy. Here’s what’s at stake-and why Netflix remains a tantalizing, if uncertain, suitor.
The ESPN Stalemate
The UFC’s current five-year, $1.5 billion deal with ESPN expires in 2025, and negotiations hit a snag over pricing and format. ESPN, concerned about falling PPV sales and a lack of crossover stars like Conor McGregor, balked at the UFC’s demand for a deal worth “more than $1 billion annually”-more than double its existing agreement1. While UFC CEO Dana White insists the relationship remains strong (“I have nothing but great things to say about my time at ESPN”), the promotion is now free to court other partners3.
Netflix’s Sports Ambitions
Netflix has emerged as a frontrunner, thanks to its $5 billion WWE deal in 2024 and its growing live sports portfolio. The streamer’s Q1 2025 revenue jumped 12.5% year-over-year to $10.54 billion, driven partly by live events like NFL Christmas Day games and WWE’s Monday Night Raw, which ranked in the top 10 weekly shows across 29 countries6. “Netflix is building a live sports portfolio with both reach and relevance,” said James Venn of Fuse, noting the platform’s global subscriber base of 300 million as a key asset for leagues6.
However, Netflix co-CEO Ted Sarandos recently dismissed the UFC’s $1 billion ask as “unacceptable,” citing live sports as a “relatively small part of our content spend”2. Yet industry experts suspect posturing: Netflix initially resisted WWE’s price before committing $5 billion, and its $18 billion content budget for 2025 leaves room for strategic deals78.
The UFC’s Leverage
The UFC’s parent company, TKO Group Holdings, already has ties to Netflix through WWE, making a partnership logistically appealing. “It would be fairly surprising if UFC didn’t help grow TKO’s partnership with Netflix,” one analyst noted, suggesting PPV events could migrate to the platform while Fight Nights land elsewhere5. Netflix’s infrastructure also offers solutions to the UFC’s piracy and accessibility woes, as its ad-supported tier ($7.99/month) could attract cost-conscious fans6.
Yet challenges remain. The UFC’s PPV model-critical to its revenue-may clash with Netflix’s subscription-first approach. While Netflix could absorb PPVs behind a premium paywall, it risks alienating casual viewers. Alternatively, a hybrid model (e.g., PPVs on Netflix, Fight Nights on linear TV) is possible, with Warner Bros. Discovery (TNT Sports) and Amazon also in the mix5.
The Dana White Factor
White has emphasized flexibility: “We do what works for the network-what do they want to do? Do they want to just put it on their air? Do they want to do pay-per-view?”3 This pragmatism suggests the UFC is open to restructuring its event calendar or pricing to secure a landmark deal. White’s track record of brokering unconventional partnerships-including the ESPN+ transition in 2018-adds credibility to Netflix rumors.
The Bottom Line
A UFC-Netflix deal is far from guaranteed, but the stars are aligning. Netflix’s WWE success, combined with the UFC’s need for a reset, creates a compelling case. If Netflix views live sports as a long-term growth engine-akin to its $5 billion WWE bet-it could meet the UFC halfway. For now, though, the promotion’s future remains a high-stakes waiting game.
Key Stats
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Netflix’s Q1 2025 revenue: $10.54 billion (+12.5% YoY), driven by live sports6.
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UFC’s asking price: $1+ billion annually-more than double its current ESPN deal3.
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WWE on Netflix: Monday Night Raw ranked top 10 in 29 countries post-launch6.
As White put it: “The next few years will be a game-changer.” Whether Netflix plays a role depends on how badly both sides want to roll the dice.
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