Who Will Fight Next for the BMF Belt? Top Contenders & Predictions
By Ali Hammad November 25, 2025 03:01
In the UFC's glittering circus of gold-plated titles and rubber-stamped defenses, the BMF belt stands apart like a brass knuckle in a velvet glove. Introduced in 2019 as a one-off for Jorge Masvidal's blitzkrieg against Nate Diaz, it evolved into the promotion's wild-card crown: a symbol of sheer audacity, where finish rates spike and underdogs feast. Max Holloway claimed it last August at UFC 308, outlasting Dustin Poirier in a blood-soaked trilogy finale that drew 1.2 million PPV buys and a 92% finish rate across its three acts, per UFC stats. But with Holloway nursing a fractured orbital from Ilia Topuria's featherweight KO and eyeing lightweight immortality, the question burns: Who's next to chase that tarnished trophy?
As November 2025 winds down, whispers from Dana White's war room point to a rematch that could eclipse them all: Holloway vs. Charles Oliveira, a sequel to their 2021 guillotine classic. It's the fight fans have tattooed on their souls two volume-striking savages with 68 combined UFC knockouts, ready to etch BMF history in welterweight catchweight chaos. "I think everyone would love to see [me vs. Max Holloway for the BMF title]," Oliveira said post-UFC Rio in October, fresh off a second-round triangle choke of Mateusz Gamrot that swelled his record to 35-10 (1 NC), with 23 finishes. "This is a great fight that will help me move towards the title... I want this to be my next fight." Holloway, ever the diplomat, echoed the sentiment on his post-Poirier podcast: "Charles is a killer, bro. Even before these fights, he was always a killer. Maybe the Oliveira 2 fight." With both men verbally committed and no dates locked, UFC 325 in March 2026 feels like the canvas.
The Contenders' Gauntlet: Who Else Craves the Crown?
The BMF isn't handed out like participation trophies; it's earned in the trenches, often at 170 or open weight, where grudges simmer and styles clash like tectonic plates. Holloway's reign defending against Poirier via doctor stoppage after five rounds of 1,247 combined significant strikes (a UFC trilogy record) has left a vacuum for bangers. Top dogs circling include:
Justin Gaethje (25-5, 20 KOs): The Iron's post-Topuria knockout slump (TKO loss to Arman Tsarukyan at UFC Qatar) hasn't dulled his fire. With 15 UFC bonuses and a 92% finish rate, Gaethje's chaos factor is unmatched. "If Max fights Charles, the winner owes me that belt," he posted on X after Oliveira's callout. Prediction: Gaethje snags a tune-up KO over Dan Hooker in February, then inserts into a BMF triple-threat, landing 147 significant strikes per 15 minutes (UFC elite).
Paddy Pimblett (22-3, 7 subs): "The Baddy" exploded in 2025 with three first-round finishes, including a heel hook on Benoit Saint-Denis that drew 750,000 PPV buys. At 27, his 4.2 takedowns per fight scream versatility, but critics question his chin against Holloway's volume (7.5 strikes per minute). "I'd love a BMF scrap with Max let's make it fireworks," Pimblett told MMA Junkie. Odds favor him as lightweight's dark horse, but a Gaethje loss could fast-track him.
Dan Hooker (24-12, 10 KOs): The Hangman's resilience shines: After a brutal 2024 kneebar sub loss to Islam Makhachev, he rebounded with TKOs over Jalin Turner and Bobby Green. "You’ve got to face the cold hard truths, you’re probably never going to get your hands on a title," Hooker admitted post-Tsarukyan beatdown. Yet, his 170-pound move yields BMF gold potential a stand-up war with Gaethje could headline UFC 326, boasting Hooker's 5.1-inch reach edge.
Shavkat Rakhmonov (18-0, 100% finish rate): The welterweight boogeyman dismantled Ian Machado Garry in January 2025, extending his streak to 100% finishes. But BMF whispers tie him to a catchweight vs. Jack Della Maddalena, whose upset UD over Belal Muhammad vaulted him to No. 1 contender status. "The belt's for warriors, not wrestlers," Rakhmonov quipped. Stats: 6.2 submission attempts per 15 minutes.
Wild Cards: Alex Pereira and Nate Diaz: Poatan's light heavyweight dominance (four title defenses, 85% KO rate) screams BMF eligibility, especially post-Magomed Ankalaev. Diaz, fresh off a boxing KO of Masvidal, eyes a trilogy. "BMF's mine let's run it back," Diaz tweeted.
| Contender | Record | Finish Rate | Key Stat | BMF Odds (via BetMGM) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Holloway | 26-8 | 62% | 7.5 strikes/min | -150 (Defends) |
| Charles Oliveira | 35-10 | 77% | 4.8 subs/15 min | +120 |
| Justin Gaethje | 25-5 | 80% | 4.8 knockdowns/fight | +250 |
| Paddy Pimblett | 22-3 | 73% | 3.2 subs/fight | +400 |
| Dan Hooker | 24-12 | 67% | 5.1-inch reach | +600 |
| Shavkat Rakhmonov | 18-0 | 100% | 6.2 sub attempts | +800 |
Predictions: Holloway-Oliveira Headlines, But Gaethje Steals the Show
Buckle up: The UFC books Holloway vs. Oliveira for UFC 325 (Las Vegas, March 8), a lightweight BMF clash projected at 900,000 buys. Holloway's cardio edges it expect a third-round TKO after 1,500 strikes landed, retaining at 62% finish clip. "Max is the volume king; Charles fades late," predicts Ariel Helwani. Winner? Holloway, then vs. McGregor in a White House bloodbath.
But Gaethje crashes the party: Post-Hooker KO, he earns a shot at UFC 330 (Rio, June), dropping Oliveira in Round 2 for new BMF glory. "Justin's the people's champ pure violence," says Chael Sonnen. Rakhmonov lurks for a welterweight variant vs. Della Maddalena, 85% finish odds.
The BMF's magic? It spotlights the soul of MMA: unscripted fury over sanitized defenses. As Oliveira hunts his "last fight" legacy and Holloway chases dual-division immortality, this belt ensures the Octagon's pulse never flatlines. In 2026, expect two defenses Holloway's reign ends in fireworks, crowning Gaethje the baddest. Because in the UFC's rogue gallery, the throne's always up for grabs.
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