Madison Square Garden has hosted its share of seismic showdowns, from Ali-Frazier to McGregor-Diaz, but few carry the weight of what unfolds on November 15: a welterweight title unification bout that pits the division's precision striker against the sport's most suffocating grappler. UFC 322's main event Jack Della Maddalena vs. Islam Makhachev isn't just a fight; it's a referendum on size, skill and supremacy. The Australian phenom defends his 170-pound strap against the Dagestani dynamo who's vacated his lightweight throne to conquer new ground. And for bettors, the line screams value in the undercard chaos, but the real money might lie in how this ends on the mat.
Della Maddalena, the 29-year-old Perth native with an 18-2 record, stormed into welterweight stardom like a bushfire through dry eucalyptus. His path to the belt was a masterclass in surgical violence: a first-round knockout of Kevin Holland in 2023, followed by stoppages of Bassil Hafez and the iconic head-kick KO of Gilbert Burns that earned him gold last spring. Now 5-0 in the UFC, JDM boasts a 92 percent finish rate, with 12 of 18 wins by knockout or TKO. His striking stats are the stuff of nightmares for opponents -- 5.2 significant strikes landed per minute at 55 percent accuracy, per UFC Stats, turning welterweight into his personal highlight reel. But it's his takedown defense a stout 72 percent that has analysts buzzing. "I've faced wrestlers before, and I stuff 'em every time," Della Maddalena said on the UFC 322 Countdown embedded series. "Islam's too little to beat me at 170. He might shoot, but I'll make him pay standing."
That bravado isn't baseless. Della Maddalena weighed in at a ripped 170 pounds on Friday, towering at 5-foot-11 with a 74-inch reach that lets him pepper foes from range. His last defense, a gritty decision over Belal Muhammad in July, showcased his cardio and clinch work, outstriking the Palestinian-American 142-98 over five rounds. "I see it going similar to the Belal fight," JDM added, envisioning a stand-up war where Makhachev's shorter 70.5-inch wingspan becomes a liability. "Islam will try a few more takedowns, but I'll keep it upright and pick him apart."
Enter Makhachev, the 33-year-old lightweight GOAT-in-waiting with a pristine 27-1 ledger, his lone blemish a 2015 decision to Adriano Martins buried in the rearview. Under Khabib Nurmagomedov's tutelage, he's become the human anaconda of MMA 13 submissions, including four in the UFC lightweight title reign that saw him tie the division's defense record at six before vacating for this bold ascent. Makhachev's grappling ledger is absurd: 4.8 takedowns per 15 minutes at 53 percent success, with ground control time averaging 6:42 per fight. Striking? Serviceable at 3.9 significant strikes per minute (42 percent accuracy), but it's the transitions that terrify -- 11 of his last 12 wins inside the distance, seven by sub.
The move to welterweight isn't whimsy; it's calculated evolution. After dominating 155 with rear-naked chokes on Alexander Volkanovski (twice) and Dustin Poirier, Makhachev bulked to 170 without sacrificing speed. "He knows how to defend, how to escape, how to get up," Makhachev said of Della Maddalena in a rare English interview on Ariel Helwani's show last week. "He has good skills on the ground... I saw his defense, a lot of guys take him down. I respect that, but in the Octagon, it's different." His coach, Abdulmanap Nurmagomedov protégé Javier Mendez, echoed the confidence: "Islam's power carries up; Jack's never faced this level of chain wrestling."
The betting market agrees, installing Makhachev a -260 favorite across major books like DraftKings and FanDuel, implying a 72 percent win probability. Della Maddalena sits at +220, a price that Hall of Famer Michael Bisping calls "a little disrespectful to JDM" on his Believe You Me podcast. "Jack's got the best boxing in the UFC right now sharp counters, footwork like a pro boxer," Bisping raved. "If he keeps it standing, he clips him early." Yet the prop bets paint a grimmer picture for the champ. Over/under 2.5 rounds is juiced to the under at -150, reflecting Makhachev's 85 percent finish rate in title fights. Method of victory? Makhachev by submission clocks in at +200, a steal given his history, while Della Maddalena by KO/TKO lags at +450.
For sharp bettors, the value isn't in the moneyline Makhachev's too reliable at -260 but in the chess match. Parlay Makhachev inside the distance (-110) with over 1.5 takedowns landed (+120), and you're looking at +250 payout on a near-lock scenario. JDM's path? A live-dog sprinkle on the Aussie by decision at +600 if you buy the size narrative, but data says otherwise: Opponents landing takedowns on Della Maddalena average just 1.2 per fight, yet Makhachev's volume could double that. "After winning the second title, he will have a chance to become one of the best to ever do it in this sport," Khabib Nurmagomedov prophesied post-weigh-ins, his eyes locked on legacy.
This isn't lightweight vs. welterweight; it's evolution vs. explosion. Della Maddalena thrives in the pocket, landing 4.8 head strikes per minute, but Makhachev's feints and levels changes have felled taller technicians like Volkanovski (6-foot). Picture Round 1: JDM circling, jabbing, testing the range. Makhachev dips low, chains a double-leg into guard, and the Garden erupts as elbows rain. By Round 2, the champ's back swells, and that rear-naked choke sinks in 3:42 elapsed.
Prediction: Makhachev via submission, Round 3. The line undervalues his adaptability; bet the +200 prop and thank Dagestan later. As the co-main Valentina Shevchenko's flyweight redemption against Weili Zhang -- brews fire (-135 favorite), UFC 322 cements 2025 as the year superfights rewrote divisions. Buckle up, bettors: The Garden's about to get Dagestani.
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