UFC on ESPN: Usman vs. Buckley – Expert Betting Predictions, Odds, and Best Picks

By Ali Hammad June 13, 2025 09:14

On Saturday, June 14, 2025, UFC Fight Night at State Farm Arena in Atlanta, Georgia, will feature a compelling welterweight clash between former champion Kamaru Usman and rising contender Joaquin Buckley. This bout has captured significant attention from fans and bettors alike, with sharp shifts in betting odds reflecting the intriguing dynamics between the seasoned veteran and the explosive up-and-comer.

Betting Odds and Line Movement

Initially, sportsbooks favored Usman, opening at around -170, with Buckley as the underdog at +140. However, as the fight approaches, the betting lines have dramatically shifted in Buckley’s favor. Currently, Buckley is the -275 favorite, while Usman is the +245 underdog at major sportsbooks such as BetOnline and Sportsbook. This swing underscores the market’s growing confidence in Buckley’s momentum and questions about Usman’s current form.

Fighter Profiles and Recent Form

Kamaru Usman, 38, stands 6 feet tall with a 76-inch reach and fights from a switch stance. He is widely regarded as one of the greatest welterweights in UFC history, having dominated the division from 2015 to 2021 with a 15-fight winning streak and multiple title defenses. However, Usman has faced a challenging stretch recently, suffering three consecutive losses and dealing with a nearly 20-month layoff before this fight.

In contrast, Joaquin Buckley, 31, also boasts a 76-inch reach but stands slightly shorter at 5 feet 10 inches and fights southpaw. Buckley has been on a tear, undefeated since Usman’s last appearance, with six straight wins, including four knockouts. His highlight-reel finish of Colby Covington last year solidified his status as a legitimate contender and showcased his explosive striking power.

Expert Predictions and Analysis

The matchup is often described as "power versus pedigree." Buckley’s youth, athleticism, and knockout power present a significant challenge for Usman, whose wrestling and championship experience remain his best tools. Analysts expect Buckley to use his striking explosiveness to keep Usman at bay, while Usman will likely attempt to leverage his wrestling to control the fight and drag it into the later rounds.

Andy Lang, a UFC handicapper, notes that while Usman’s wrestling could slow Buckley, the younger fighter’s cardio and striking may prove too much. The general consensus among experts leans toward Buckley by decision or knockout, with many locking in Buckley by KO at odds around +150 as the best bet.

Key Betting Tips

Buckley by Knockout (+150): Buckley’s power and recent performances make the knockout bet attractive. His ability to finish fights early could overwhelm Usman, who has shown signs of wear and reduced explosiveness.
Usman by Decision (+200): For bettors believing in Usman’s championship DNA and wrestling prowess, a decision win is plausible if he can neutralize Buckley’s striking and maintain control.
Fight to Go Under 4.5 Rounds (-125): Given Buckley’s finishing ability and Usman’s potential to push the pace early, many expect the fight to end before the final bell.

Final Thoughts

This fight encapsulates a classic UFC narrative: a former champion fighting to prove he still belongs at the top versus an ascending contender hungry to cement his status. Usman’s legacy and technical skills are undeniable, but time and recent setbacks have shifted the momentum toward Buckley. As the UFC returns to Atlanta, fans can expect a thrilling contest that could either mark Usman’s last stand or Buckley’s breakout moment.

With the main card airing live on ESPN at 10 p.m. ET, fight fans and bettors alike should prepare for a night of high drama and potential fireworks. As always, bettors are advised to monitor line movements closely and consider prop bets to maximize value.

In the words of Buckley himself, “I fight like my opponents owe me money,” and Saturday night, he looks to cash in on a career-defining victory.