UFC 318 Best Bets: Who Are the Top Underdog Picks on This Massive Card?

By Ali Hammad July 17, 2025 09:12

UFC 318, headlined by the electrifying trilogy clash between Max Holloway and Dustin Poirier, promises not only a marquee main event but also a stacked card filled with intriguing matchups and potential surprises. For bettors looking to capitalize on value, this event offers some compelling underdog bets that could shake up the odds and deliver substantial returns.

Paulo Costa (+200) vs. Roman Kopylov (-240) stands out as one of the more tantalizing underdog opportunities on the main card. Costa, a former middleweight title challenger known as “Borrachinha,” is coming off some setbacks but remains a powerhouse striker with heavy hands and an aggressive style that can end fights abruptly. Kopylov enters favored due to recent consistency, but Costa’s experience against top-tier opponents gives him a credible path to the upset. Costa’s power and pressure could pose problems for Kopylov, especially if he can cut off the cage effectively. UFC commentator Joe Rogan has remarked, “When Paulo finds his rhythm, he’s a nightmare for anyone in the division. If he’s healthy and motivated, Costa always has a puncher’s chance.”

Another notable underdog on the main card is Patrício “Pitbull” Freire (+175) against Dan Ige (-210). Pitbull, a dominant featherweight and lightweight champion in Bellator, is making his UFC featherweight debut against Ige, a rising contender with an impressive five-fight win streak. While Ige is favored, Pitbull’s championship pedigree and finishing ability he has 20 career finishes make him a dangerous underdog. His grappling and striking versatility could turn the tide if Ige underestimates the transition to UFC competition. MMA analyst Ariel Helwani commented, “Patrício brings a wealth of high-level experience that might not be fully accounted for in the odds. He’s a classic underdog ripe to shock the UFC featherweight division.”

On the lightweight slate, Michael Johnson (+400) faces Daniel Zellhuber (-550) as a significant underdog. Johnson, a UFC veteran with notable wins but a recent track record marked with inconsistency, is a long shot against the favored Zellhuber. Yet, Johnson’s relentless pace and knockout power are dangerous traits in a division where one punch can change everything. While the odds are steep, Johnson’s propensity to push the pace could create openings for explosive moments, especially if this matchup unfolds into a brawl.

The prelims also offer sharp bets, particularly in the middleweight swing bout between Brendan Allen (+170) and Marvin Vettori (-205). Vettori, while favored, has been facing tough competition and dealing with injuries, which may blunt his output. Allen, with solid grappling and improving striking, is an actionable bet for those willing to wager on momentum and recent performance gains.

Historical stats for this event emphasize the potential volatility. For instance, UFC middleweight bouts have seen an average finish rate of over 70% in the last year a strong indicator that fights rarely go the distance, increasing chances for sudden upsets. Moreover, fighters coming off losses have won nearly 40% of their next fights historically, speaking to the resilience of competitors like Costa and Johnson.

Ultimately, UFC 318’s underdog picks balance risk with tantalizing upside. As seasoned UFC analyst Brett Okamoto puts it, “Events stacked the way UFC 318 is don’t just hinge on the main event there are several bouts where the betting market might undervalue the underdog’s experience and styles that could create fireworks.” For bettors searching for value, Paulo Costa, Patrício Pitbull, Michael Johnson, and Brendan Allen all merit serious consideration as UFC’s biggest underdogs who could redefine the narrative come fight night.

Set for July 19 at New Orleans’ Smoothie King Center, UFC 318 isn’t just about the headline act it’s a deep card loaded with hidden gems waiting to reward the sharp eyes and gutsy bets.