UFC 317 Betting Prediction: Expert Picks and Odds for the Main Card

By Ali Hammad June 27, 2025 07:18

UFC 317, set for June 28, 2025, at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, promises an electrifying night of mixed martial arts action, headlined by a high-stakes lightweight title bout between Ilia Topuria and Charles Oliveira. With the lightweight championship vacant after Islam Makhachev vacated the belt to pursue welterweight gold, this matchup has captured the attention of fans and bettors alike. Alongside the main event, the card features a compelling co-main event flyweight title defense by Alexandre Pantoja against Kai Kara-France, plus several intriguing bouts that could shift divisional landscapes.

Main Event: Ilia Topuria vs. Charles Oliveira – Lightweight Title

The marquee fight pits the undefeated former featherweight champion Ilia Topuria against former lightweight king Charles Oliveira. Topuria’s meteoric rise has been defined by his relentless pressure, knockout power, and grappling prowess, boasting an unblemished record that has made him a favorite among analysts. Oliveira, meanwhile, brings vast experience, holding the record for most submission wins in UFC history and a dynamic striking arsenal.

Oddsmakers currently list Topuria as a slight favorite at approximately -130, with Oliveira the underdog at +110. Topuria’s youth and momentum are key factors, but Oliveira’s savvy and championship experience make this a highly competitive bout. MMA analyst Damon Martin notes, “Topuria’s aggressive style and undefeated record make him a tough out, but Oliveira’s craftiness and submission skills could turn the tide if he finds an opening.”

Prediction: Expect a tactical first two rounds with Topuria applying pressure and Oliveira looking for counters. The fight could end via late submission or a Topuria TKO in the championship rounds.

Co-Main Event: Alexandre Pantoja vs. Kai Kara-France – Flyweight Title

In the co-main event, flyweight champion Alexandre Pantoja aims for his fourth consecutive title defense against challenger Kai Kara-France. Their rivalry dates back to a 2016 exhibition bout on The Ultimate Fighter: Tournament of Champions, which Pantoja won. Pantoja’s well-rounded skill set and recent dominance have made him a -265 favorite, while Kara-France is a +215 underdog.

Kara-France’s striking and resilience pose a threat, but Pantoja’s grappling and fight IQ give him the edge. Betting expert Jeff Wagenheim states, “Pantoja’s consistency and championship experience make him a smart bet to retain, but Kara-France’s power means an upset is always possible.”

Prediction: Pantoja to win via decision or late submission, though expect a competitive fight.

Other Notable Main Card Bouts

Beneil Dariush (-162) vs. Renato Moicano (+136): Both top-10 lightweights, Dariush’s wrestling and pressure contrast with Moicano’s striking finesse. Dariush is favored, but Moicano’s counter-striking could make this a close, exciting fight.
Brandon Royval (-125) vs. Joshua Van (+105): A flyweight clash with Royval’s aggressive style against Van’s technical approach. Royval’s slight edge in odds reflects his experience.
Payton Talbott vs. Felipe Lima: Talbott is favored, returning from his first career loss, while Lima rides a 14-fight win streak, making this a sleeper bout with upset potential.

Betting Strategy and Odds Overview

The UFC 317 card offers a mix of favorites and potential underdog value. Experts advise cautious bankroll management, emphasizing the importance of researching fighter styles, recent performances, and matchup dynamics.

Sportsbook data shows the lightweight title fight as the most bet-on, with sharp money leaning toward Topuria. However, Oliveira’s odds suggest value for bettors willing to risk on an upset. The flyweight title bout is expected to be more straightforward, with Pantoja favored to retain.

UFC 317’s main card is stacked with high-stakes matchups that will shape the divisions for months to come. Ilia Topuria vs. Charles Oliveira stands as the most compelling betting proposition, blending youth and experience in a fight for the vacant lightweight crown. Meanwhile, Pantoja’s flyweight title defense and other key bouts provide additional wagering opportunities.

As MMA analyst Nolan King summarized, “UFC 317 is a pivotal event in 2025’s fight calendar. The betting lines reflect the intrigue and uncertainty, making it a must-watch and must-bet card.”

Fans and bettors can catch UFC 317 live on ESPN+ PPV starting at 10 p.m. ET on June 28. With expert picks and odds in hand, the stage is set for a thrilling night of MMA action.