UFC 316 Main Card Predictions: Expert Betting Picks & Odds for Every Fight

By Ali Hammad June 03, 2025 09:12

UFC 316, set for June 7, 2025, at the Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey, promises to be a landmark event featuring two thrilling title bouts headlining the main card. With the bantamweight championship rematch between Merab Dvalishvili and Sean O’Malley leading the charge, and Julianna Peña defending her women’s bantamweight title against Kayla Harrison in the co-main event, bettors and fans alike have much to anticipate.

Main Event: Merab Dvalishvili vs. Sean O’Malley 2

The main event is a compelling rematch. Dvalishvili, who dethroned O’Malley at UFC 306 via unanimous decision, is renowned for his relentless wrestling and currently holds the UFC record for most takedowns. His grinding style has proven difficult to counter, and he enters this fight as the reigning bantamweight champion. O’Malley, coming off shoulder surgery, is a dynamic striker with a flair for the spectacular, aiming to reclaim his title.

Statistically, Dvalishvili’s takedown average stands at an impressive 7.5 per 15 minutes, while O’Malley’s striking accuracy is near 50%, making this a classic wrestler-versus-striker matchup. Expert analysis suggests that if Dvalishvili can impose his grappling early, he will control the pace and likely secure another decision victory. However, O’Malley’s improved defense and power could turn the tide if he lands a significant strike. Odds currently favor Dvalishvili slightly, reflecting his championship status and wrestling dominance.

Co-Main Event: Julianna Peña vs. Kayla Harrison

The women’s bantamweight title fight pits Peña, a two-time UFC champion known for her resilience and well-rounded skill set, against Kayla Harrison, a former two-time PFL lightweight tournament winner and Olympic judo gold medalist. Peña’s UFC experience and striking versatility contrast with Harrison’s elite grappling pedigree.

Peña’s recent form includes a strong striking defense rate of 60%, while Harrison boasts an 80% takedown success rate from her judo background. This fight is expected to be a tactical battle, with Peña likely to keep the fight standing to neutralize Harrison’s judo throws. Bettors should note Peña’s ability to adapt mid-fight, making her a slight favorite. Yet, Harrison’s submission skills could end the fight early if she secures a clinch or takedown.

Other Main Card Fights

Vicente Luque vs. Kevin Holland (Welterweight): Both fighters have had mixed recent results (2-3 in last five fights). Luque’s aggressive striking and Holland’s versatile style make this a competitive bout. Luque’s edge in finishing rate (55%) gives him a slight advantage.
Mario Bautista vs. Patchy Mix (Bantamweight): Bautista faces UFC newcomer and former Bellator champion Patchy Mix. Mix’s grappling credentials and submission rate over 60% make him a favorite to control the fight on the ground.
Kelvin Gastelum vs. Joe Pyfer (Middleweight): Gastelum’s veteran experience contrasts with Pyfer’s rising momentum following a recent knockout. Gastelum’s cardio and wrestling defense could be key, but Pyfer’s power cannot be underestimated.

Betting Picks and Odds Summary

Dvalishvili to win by decision (due to wrestling control) is the favored pick.
Peña favored to win by decision or late stoppage, with Harrison as a live underdog for submission.
Luque and Mix favored on the moneyline, with Mix’s grappling expected to be decisive.
Gastelum’s experience gives him a slight edge, but Pyfer’s power makes this a potential upset spot.

UFC 316’s main card offers a rich tapestry of styles and storylines, with two championship bouts anchoring a night of high-stakes competition. Bettors should weigh wrestling dominance and grappling credentials heavily, while also considering striking improvements and fight IQ. As always, fight night unpredictability remains, but the data-driven insights and expert analysis provide a strong foundation for informed betting decisions.

This event marks UFC’s return to Newark, promising an electric atmosphere and memorable fights. Fans and bettors alike will want to tune in early to catch all the action live from the Prudential Center on June 7, 2025