Kentucky Derby 2025 Betting Predictions: Top Contenders, Odds, and Expert Picks

By Jayson Panganiban April 18, 2025 14:29

The 151st Kentucky Derby is shaping up as one of the most fascinating in recent times, with a deep field of contenders packed with star power, good storylines, and a betting ticket with chalky favorites and tempting longshots. With the Run for the Roses coming on May 3 at Churchill Downs, let's get an in-depth look at the leaders, the key figures, and expert handicapping—along with the human element that makes this a springtime classic.

The Favorites: Journalism Paces the Pack

Leader among the betting probabilities is Journalism (3-1), a colt that has dominated the field with a chain of breathtaking successes. Trained by Michael McCarthy and owned by 2007 Preakness winner Curlin, Journalism earned his status as the Derby favorite by capturing the Los Alamitos Futurity, San Felipe Stakes, and Santa Anita Derby, earning 122.5 qualifying points and posting Beyer Speed Figures of 102, 108, and 87 in his last three races.

Right behind Journalism are Sandman and Sovereignty, both at 8-1. Sandman, trained by Mark Casse, comes off a win in the Arkansas Derby but has been inconsistent in other graded stakes, a fact not lost on sharp bettors. “A victory at Oaklawn is impressive, but his record in other big races leaves questions,” said SportsLine’s Gene Menez, who is fading Sandman despite his top-three odds. Sovereignty, meanwhile, boasts a win in the Fountain of Youth and a runner-up finish in the Florida Derby, suggesting he may thrive on the long Churchill Downs stretch.

Contenders and Longshots: Luxor Cafe and More

One of the most intriguing stories is Luxor Cafe (15-1), a Kentucky-bred colt trained in Japan by Noriyuki Hori and sired by Triple Crown winner American Pharoah. Luxor Cafe punched his ticket to Louisville with wins in the Fukurya and Hyacinth Stakes, and Japanese horses have come heartbreakingly close to Derby glory in recent years. “Luxor Cafe has the pedigree and international seasoning to make noise,” said a prominent handicapper, highlighting his four wins in six career starts.

Trainer Bob Baffert returns to the Derby spotlight with Rodriguez (10-1), marking his first appearance since a suspension following the Medina Spirit controversy. Rodriguez wired the field in the Wood Memorial and, like his sire Authentic, prefers to set the pace. However, some experts are cautious: “His temperament and need for the lead could be a liability in a crowded Derby field,” noted Jody Demling, who is fading Rodriguez in his projections1.

Other notable contenders include Tappan Street (10-1), a steadily improving Brad Cox trainee who won the Florida Derby, and Burnham Square (15-1), the Blue Grass Stakes winner who bounced back from a lackluster Fountain of Youth12.

Betting Trends and Expert Picks

The Derby is notorious for upsets—favorites have won just under 35% of the time since 1908, and the top choice has not triumphed in the last five years3. Last year’s winner, Mystik Dan, paid out at 18-1, a reminder that value can be found beyond the favorites4. This year, experts like Demling and Menez are looking closely at double-digit longshots, with Luxor Cafe and others drawing significant attention.

As NBC Sports analyst Drew Dinsick put it, “The Derby is where legends and longshots collide. With a field this deep, don’t be surprised if the roses go to a horse outside the top three in the odds board”3.

The Final Word

With Journalism leading the charge, Sandman and Sovereignty in hot pursuit, and dangerous contenders like Luxor Cafe and Rodriguez lurking, the 2025 Kentucky Derby promises high drama and betting intrigue. As the experts remind us, “Anything can happen in the Derby, and that’s what makes it the greatest two minutes in sports.” Keep an eye on the odds, watch for value, and get ready for another unforgettable Run for the Roses1 24