Inside Look: UFC Saudi Arabia Main Event Betting Breakdown
Inside Look: UFC Saudi Arabia Main Event Betting Breakdown
By Michael Kachan June 20, 2024 15:26
With the Middleweight championship matchup between Dricus Du Plessis and Israel Adesanya recently announced, the winner of the UFC Saudi Arabia main event between former champion Robert Whittaker and rising star Ikram Aliskerov may determine who’s next in line for a title shot.
Whittaker was initially set to fight the undefeated Khamzat Chimaev, but after Chimaev pulled out, Whittaker will now face Ikram Aliskerov. Aliskerov, like Chimaev, has been on an impressive run with a seven-fight win streak.
This fight promises non-stop action from the start, with fans in for a treat as Aliskerov faces his toughest challenge to date.
Aliskerov is a well-rounded menace in the cage. His wrestling is elite, his submission grappling is high-level, his striking is clean and crisp, and he packs a lot of power. However, there are questions about his cardio, as he rarely leaves the first round and tends to slow down when he does.
On the other side, Whittaker has been at the top of the division for a long time. His only recent losses are to former champion Israel Adesanya and current champion Dricus Du Plessis. Since losing the belt, he has cleaned out the rest of the division with wins over five different title challengers, including Paulo Costa, Marvin Vettori, Kelvin Gastelum, Jared Cannonier, and Darren Till. Whittaker is a fantastic striker who seamlessly integrates kicks into his combinations, has good wrestling, excellent takedown defense, great movement, and outstanding cardio.
Striking
In terms of striking, both fighters are closely matched. Aliskerov has slightly more power and is a cleaner counter-striker, while Whittaker tends to throw with more volume and is more likely to initiate and lead striking exchanges.
Aliskerov’s combinations are crisp and fast, with clean, straight punches that make him an effective counter-striker. However, his striking output diminishes as fights progress, and his striking defense is not the best, as many opponents have found success at range before he finishes them.
Whittaker, on the other hand, has more weapons on his feet. He possesses a clean jab, effective 1-2 combinations, and seamlessly mixes head kicks into his attacks. Like Aliskerov, he has great counters, but unlike Aliskerov, his striking output is consistently high.
Aliskerov might have success countering Whittaker early and has the power to potentially knock him out in the first or second round. However, if he doesn’t, Whittaker should be able to outpace and outwork him, landing more frequently and cleaner.
Grappling
The grappling in this fight should be close and competitive. Aliskerov is likely the better offensive wrestler, with fast and well-timed takedowns and a strong submission grappling game. Whittaker will need to be cautious whenever the fight hits the mat.
However, Whittaker’s takedown defense is excellent, and he is very difficult to hold down due to his great get-up game. Additionally, he has his own wrestling skills to rely on if he feels uncomfortable on the feet.
If the fight goes to the ground, Aliskerov is likely to have more success, but taking Whittaker down and keeping him there will be a significant challenge.
Cardio
Considering this is a five-round main event, cardio is crucial. Whittaker has extensive five-round experience against top competition and rarely slows down. He easily has the better cardio and has been preparing for a five-round fight against a strong grappler in Chimaev, so the change in opponent to Aliskerov shouldn’t bother him much as Aliskerov is a similar matchup.
On the other hand, Aliskerov has never been in a five-round fight and has only gone a full three rounds three times in sixteen fights. He has shown signs of slowing down in past fights, particularly against Chad Hanekom. Additionally, he is taking this fight on short notice, originally being scheduled to fight Andre Muniz and then Antonio Trocoli last week at UFC Vegas 93. This means he was preparing for a lower level of competition and not a five-round fight. His prolonged weight cut could also affect his cardio.
Prediction
Aliskerov is likely to come out strong and have early success, possibly even hurting Whittaker on the feet. However, due to the cardio dynamic, Whittaker should be able to take over as the fight progresses and secure the win. His takedown defense should allow him to keep the fight standing, where he will be the more effective striker. As Aliskerov slows down, a late finish for Whittaker wouldn’t be surprising. If not, Whittaker should win by decision.
Pick: Robert Whittaker by Decision
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