On February 11, the 25th edition of men’s Olympic hockey gets underway as 12 countries battle for the gold medal. This year, the NHL will allow its players to compete in the Winter Olympics for the first time since 2014. The league goes on hiatus for two weeks.
Finland returns as the defending gold-medal winner, having won at the 2022 Beijing Olympics. However, Canada and the United States enter this tournament as the odds-on favorites to win gold. Even Sweden slots in higher than the Finns as a favorite.
This puts Finland as an appealing longshot for the 2026 Olympics. Let’s take a look at this 12-coutnry field and size up the contenders, along with identifying a few sleeper hockey picks that could shock the Milan-Cortina Games.
IIHF Format Changes
Before jumping into the Groups, it should be noted that there are a few tweaks to the tournament. Each team will play three Round Robin games. When that round ends, then all 12 teams will be reseeded based on a number of factors like wins, points, goal differential, and more.
From there, the four highest rated teams will have a bye and automatically head to the Quarterfinals. The remaining eight teams (based on their seeding) will play in a single elimination round to earn a spot in the Quarterfinals.
The four winners from those teams will meet the top four seeds with the highest ranked team playing the lowest ranked team that advanced to the QF.
Group A: Canada Set To Dominate
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Canada
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Switzerland
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Czechia
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France
Last year, Canada (+125) won the 4 Nations Face-Off in impressive fashion. It was a not only a success for this team, but also the NHL who put on a spectacular event in place of the All-Star game. This team is favored to win Gold and rightfully so.
Canada has two of the best players in the world anchoring their team in Nathan MacKinnon and Connor McDavid. And, yet, this roster is still loaded beyond those two stars.
Canada’s offensive firepower is unmatched in the Olympics. The level of talent across their lines is scary. And, this roster is loaded with champions from the NHL to International competitions. Not only will they win this Group but Canada should finish the Round Robin portion as the no.1 seed overall.
Czechia (+1400) has the next highest odds to win gold. Their ceiling is a Quarterfinal appearance as this country has never won gold before. To their credit, they have eight total medals with four silver and four bronze.
Switzerland (+2200) has two bronze medals on their resume but this country has little hope of matching up against Canada and Czechia. Yet, they are still far better than France (+25000), which has the second longest odds to win gold. France has never medaled in Olympic hockey.
Group B: Will Sweden or Finland Prevail?
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Finland
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Sweden
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Slovakia
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Italy
Italy (+35000) has never medaled in Olympic hockey and enters this tournament as the biggest longshot on the board. While we love a good sleeper, this squad will be lucky to score on these other teams, let alone flirt with a win.
Slovakia (+6000) is better than Italy but will be run off the ice against Sweden and Finland. They should finish third in this Group and knocked out of the mini-tournament following Round Robin play.
The reality is that Group B will come down to whoever wins between Finland (+1000) and Sweden (+450) on February 13. The Swedes are looking to capture gold for the first time since the 2006 Turin games, while Finland is looking to win a second gold and become the first country to do so since Canada accomplished this in 2010 and 2014.
One notable absence for Finland is Aleksander Barkov who captained the team at the 4 Nations. His loss will be felt by this team, which will try to rely on their strength – defense.
The Finns’ defense is headlined by Miro Heiskanen who was out for the 4-Nations last year. Niko Mikkola is another solid player that boast of two-way skills as a defenseman.
Finland’s goaltending will also be solid with Lankinen, Luukkonen, and Saros. All three of these players are high-quality goaltenders. It will be a heated battle for the top goalie spot.
With that said, I like Sweden to edge out Finland in Group B and finish as the no.3 seed, which should put Finland at no.4 once the Round Robin games are completed.
Sweden has a better offense with players Lucas Raymon, Adrian Kempe and William Nylander. Mika Zibanejad and Leo Carlson also provide great depth. Like Finland, the Swedes’ strength is their defense which is one of the best in the tournament.
Rasmus Dahlin, Victor Hedman, and Erik Karlsson are highly-skilled offensive defenders. Jonas Brodin and Gustav Forsling are lock-down defenders. Finland might have a slight edge in the net, but Swede’s goaltending will look better than it did at 4-Nations with Filip Gustavsson, Jacob Markstrom and Jesper Wallstedt.
Group C: USA Will Cruise To The Quarterfinals
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United States
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Germany
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Latvia
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Denmark
Make no mistake about it, Team USA (+175) will sleepwalk through Group C to the Quarterfinals. And, because of their Group, USA could threaten Canada for the no.1 seed in the QF round.
Germany (+6000), Latvia (+15000), and Denmark (+15000) are nothing more than speedbumps for Team USA in this round. Clearly, the United States have the easiest path to a no.1 seed.
USA clearly focused on improving their offensive scoring from the 4-Nations when they finished second to Canada. They added Tage Thompson and Clayton Keller to provide a punch. Maybe they will figure out how to maximize Kyle Connor this time around.
Defensively, Quinn Hughes’ addition was a big move. Charlie McAvoy will look to show his abilities in the Olympics after being injured during the 4-Nations.
With an improved defense, the goaltending should also see a bump even though Connor Hellebuyck, Jake Oettinger and Jeremy Swayman will provide a strong presence between the pipes.
Gold Medal: Canada vs. USA
At the 2022 Olympics, NHL players didn’t participate due to the NHL nixing it because of covid. However, we saw how Canada and USA were the two best teams at the 4-Nations last year. When sizing up the Groups, Canada and USA should plow through the Round Robin into the Top 2 seeds.
From there, they will get favorable matchups in the Quarterfinals where they enter the Semifinals favored in their respective matchups.
The reality is, these two teams are poised to meet in the Gold Medal game. They have the most complete rosters and biggest hockey stars in the world.
Sweden will be a force in these games and could threaten Canada or USA in the Semifinals with their defense and goaltending.
The biggest longshots are the Finns at +1000 odds. They have the experience from 2022, to play at a high level in the QFs and SFs. While they won an Olympic gold without NHL players, this roster is still solid enough to be a threat.
With that said, Canada is poised to win gold for the first time since 2014. This country holds the record for most golds with nine and most medals with 16. They are loaded from top to bottom, have an offensive juggernaut, strong defensive play, top-notch goaltending, and arguably the two best players in the world.
About the Author
Rob “Knuckles” McPhail is a trusted expert in hockey betting with over two decades of hands-on experience shaping the modern betting landscape.
Today, Rob shares his expert hockey picks, analysis, betting strategies, and educational content to help bettors become more disciplined and successful.
For more from Rob, visit https://knuckles.com
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