Ezekiel Elliott of the Dallas Cowboys: Evaluating His Value as a Significant Fantasy Football Sleeper for the 2024 Season

Ezekiel Elliott of the Dallas Cowboys: Evaluating His Val...

By Arslan Saleem August 17, 2024 10:05

Photo by Ron Jenkins/Getty Images

Since being taken with the No. 4 overall pick in the loaded class of picks, Elliott, who was supposed to be a keystone for Dallas's offense, has also seen his career marked by peaks and valleys. With a running style that was as incendiary and violent as it was electrifying throughout those two seasons, Elliott quickly emerged as one of the premier backs in professional football. However, as the years have passed, his performance has been up and down, leaving you to wonder if it is worth having him on your fantasy football roster.

Elliott's path veered dramatically in 2023 when the New England Patriots signed him after he'd spent his first seven seasons in Dallas. Although he lost some efficiency, he still made a sizable impact on 184 rushing attempts, with his final numbers being 642 yards and three touchdowns. Will Elliott revert to fantasy football sleeper status? In this article, let's look at his recent performance and what we can expect from him in the 2023 season regarding draft value.

2023: Ezekiel Elliott

The 2023 season had its good and bad moments for Elliott. When he arrived at the Patriots, he had to learn a new offense on the fly. His yards per carry average for the season was 3.5, a far cry from his career mark of 4.6 ypc. There are many factors contributing to this decline;

Injuries and Wear: During his eight-year career, Elliott's body has absorbed a healthy dose of punishment with diminished efficiency as he churns up usage. He finished 45th of the 49 qualifying backs in missed tackles forced per attempt. He was only one spot above that among yards after contact per attempt, demonstrating difficulty shaking off would-be tacklers to pick up more yardage.

Offensive Alteration: The Patriots are missing as perpendicular an infraction while the Cowboys, which made it tougher for Elliott to be noticed. His performance was further inhibited by a weak offensive line in front of an increasingly beleaguered quarterbacking situation.

How it Played Out: Elliott was essentially a short-yardage specialist, so he didn't produce many yards but still had value to score. His one spike performance game was in week 14 against the Steelers, as he produced a very respectable 20 fantasy points, proving what he can do when given these chances.

Thanks to his talent and ability to score a touchdown, he was still in most fantasy conversations through all of the bad. He ended the season as the No. 33 overall running back with a total of 123.5 fantasy points,

What to expect from Elliott for 2024 Fantasy Football

Expected Workload

His goal-line back history means he should offer upside in the scoring department, especially as the lead horse of Dak Prescott's league-best offense.

Team Outlook

The Cowboys have one of the best offensive lines in football, and if they are healthy, Elliott could remain very successful. It all starts up front, and a good offensive line can open holes for the running game and give quarterbacks enough time to throw. Moreover, as long as Dak Prescott is under center for the Cowboys, the offense should continue to run downhill and use play-action situations, which will only benefit Zeke.

Quarterback Situation

In addition, Prescott's deep-pass tendency should significantly help Elliott's fantasy value. Should defenses respect the pass, it would create holes for Elliott to run through. Additionally, Cowboys head coach Mike McCarthy's offensive philosophy has historically preferred a robust ground game that would result in more work for Elliott.

Overall Fantasy Value

While many are expecting the touchdowns to regress, which will be tough for him if 15-20 scores are his new normal and that TD-per-touch rate converts itself back into one of the five-to-six touches on a good day, it is a wee bit hyperbolic there, it's also really all he needs in this environment. With his NFL experience and the potential for an explosive Cowboys offense, he should be on call as a solid Flex option or even low-end RB2 in deeper leagues. With his current ADP of 119, Zeke could go undrafted in many leagues, making him a good pickup for fantasy owners looking to bank on upside late in their drafts.

Elliott's scoring and pass-game usage will be key as he tries to re-establish himself among the elite fantasy options at running back. Elliott is a player to keep an eye on as the season nears, and he could end up with some serious value for those willing to take him in later drafts. While he might not return to being the tour de force of 2018-19, there is undoubted potential for Ezekiel Elliott to be much better than many appear willing to believe and shock a lot of people this year, becoming the pick that makes or breaks your fantasy football team.

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