Shohei Ohtani’s Power Surge: Can He Break the Single-Season Home Run Record in 2025?

By Oliver Wiener June 10, 2025 09:12

Shohei Ohtani is once again capturing baseball’s spotlight in 2025 with a remarkable power surge that has fans and analysts buzzing about the possibility of a historic single-season home run record. As of early June, Ohtani leads the majors with 23 home runs, blazing a trail that places him among the elite sluggers in Dodgers history and fueling speculation about whether he can surpass the all-time single-season record.

A Historic Start to the Season

On May 27, Ohtani became the first player in the majors to reach 20 home runs in 2025, doing so in just 55 games a feat only matched twice before in Dodgers history by Gil Hodges (21 homers in 1951) and Cody Bellinger (20 homers in 2019). His 23 home runs through early June rank him second in MLB, complementing a .291 batting average and a robust .1.015 OPS. Notably, Ohtani’s slugging percentage in May alone soared to .776, more than 200 points above his career monthly average, reflecting a new level of discipline and power at the plate.

Ohtani’s home runs are a mix of majestic moonshots and precise opposite-field blasts. For example, his 20th homer was a 362-foot opposite-field shot at Progressive Field, showcasing his ability to adapt and find gaps rather than relying solely on sheer power. Statcast data reveals some of his homers have exit velocities exceeding 115 mph, with one notable blast off the Miami Marlins clocked at 117.9 mph and traveled 386 feet.

The Record in Sight

The current MLB single-season home run record stands at 73, set by Barry Bonds in 2001. Ohtani’s power surge over recent seasons 46 homers in 2021, 44 in 2023, and a franchise-record 54 in 2024 suggests he could challenge this mark if he maintains his pace. FanGraphs’ Steamer projections estimate around 43 home runs for Ohtani in 2025, but his early-season form indicates he could exceed expectations.

Dodgers manager Dave Roberts praised Ohtani’s improved approach, noting, “He’s just been much more disciplined in the strike zone,” a factor that has translated into consistent power production and on-base success.

Two-Way Excellence

What makes Ohtani’s power surge even more extraordinary is his status as a two-way player. While his pitching workload has been limited this season, his bat alone is carrying the Dodgers’ offense. The balance between pitching and hitting remains a defining feature of his career, adding to the excitement around his offensive milestones.

Can He Sustain the Pace?

Sustaining such a torrid home run pace over a full 162-game season is a daunting challenge. Pitchers will adjust, and Ohtani’s health and playing time will be critical variables. However, his track record of durability and adaptability, combined with his work ethic, suggests he has the tools to keep producing at an elite level.

Shohei Ohtani’s 2025 power surge is one of the most compelling storylines in baseball. With 23 home runs already and a slugging percentage that eclipses his career norms, he is firmly in the conversation as a potential single-season home run record breaker. Whether he can rewrite the record books remains to be seen, but one thing is clear: Ohtani’s blend of power, discipline, and two-way prowess makes him one of the most electrifying players in the game today.