As the 2025 MLB season reaches its midpoint, Shohei Ohtani is once again positioning himself as the overwhelming favorite to claim the National League MVP award. The Los Angeles Dodgers superstar, fresh off a historic 2024 campaign, has opened the season as the prohibitive favorite, with sportsbooks assigning him odds as low as -600 to -650, implying a roughly 75-83% chance to win the award. But is Ohtani truly running away with the MVP race, or could challengers emerge?
Historic 2024 Season Sets the Stage
Ohtani’s 2024 season was nothing short of legendary. He became the first player in MLB history to hit 50 home runs and steal 50 bases in a single season, finishing second in the league in home runs (54), RBIs (130), and Wins Above Replacement (WAR) with 9.2, while batting .310. His two-way dominance excelling both as a hitter and a pitcher helped lead the Dodgers to a World Series championship in his first year with the franchise. By winning the NL MVP last year, Ohtani joined Frank Robinson as the only players to win MVP awards in both leagues, underscoring his transcendent talent.
2025 Season: Maintaining the Momentum
Ohtani’s MVP odds have only improved as the 2025 season has unfolded. Following the Dodgers’ announcement that he would return to pitching for the first time since Tommy John surgery in 2023, his odds shortened from around -300 to as low as -650, reflecting bettors’ confidence that his two-way contributions will be decisive. His ability to impact games both on the mound and at the plate makes him nearly impossible to beat in the MVP market.
Experts note that even if Ohtani’s pitching appearances are limited, the mere addition of his arm to his already elite hitting profile significantly boosts his MVP case. As one sportsbook analyst remarked, “If he performs reasonably well in even a few appearances, you can expect his odds to climb even higher for the award”. This dual-threat capability sets Ohtani apart from every other candidate.
Competition in the NL MVP Race
While Ohtani is the clear favorite, a handful of other stars remain in the conversation. Pete Crow-Armstrong (+600 to +850), Corbin Carroll (+1300 to +2500), and Juan Soto (+3000 to +4000) are among those with respectable odds, largely due to their strong offensive production and defensive value. However, none have matched Ohtani’s combination of power, speed, and pitching impact.
The American League MVP race is similarly dominated by Aaron Judge, who opened the season as a prohibitive favorite after his own historic 2024 campaign. Yet, Ohtani’s unique skill set and his continued excellence keep him in a league of his own.
Is Ohtani Running Away With It?
Given the current landscape, Ohtani’s odds and performance suggest he is indeed running away with the MVP award. His projected WAR, offensive numbers, and the added value of pitching create a near-insurmountable lead. Unlike typical MVP races where multiple players jockey for position, Ohtani’s two-way dominance provides a compelling narrative and statistical edge.
As the season progresses, the key for Ohtani will be maintaining health and continuing to contribute in both roles. His ability to do so could not only secure his fourth MVP but also further cement his legacy as one of baseball’s most uniquely talented players.
Shohei Ohtani’s 2025 MVP odds reflect his extraordinary impact on the game. From historic power-speed numbers to his return to the mound, he remains the overwhelming favorite to win the award. While challengers exist, none match his dual-threat prowess or overall value. As the season unfolds, it appears increasingly likely that Ohtani will once again capture baseball’s highest individual honor, continuing to rewrite the record books and redefine what it means to be a superstar in the modern era.
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