MLB MVP Race 2025: Favorites and Dark Horses

By Oliver Wiener June 26, 2025 09:34

As the 2025 MLB season progresses past its midpoint, the MVP race is already shaping up with clear favorites and intriguing dark horses in both leagues. With outstanding performances and compelling narratives unfolding, fans and analysts alike are closely watching who will separate themselves as the most valuable players in baseball.

American League MVP Favorites

The frontrunner in the American League remains New York Yankees slugger Aaron Judge, who is widely regarded as the best hitter on the planet. Judge, last year’s AL MVP, is on pace for another historic season. Through late June, he leads MLB in hits (55), runs (32), RBIs (33), and boasts an eye-popping .510 on-base percentage and .777 slugging percentage, resulting in a staggering 1.287 OPS. His Baseball Reference WAR (bWAR) of 3.1 and FanGraphs WAR (fWAR) of 3.4 further underscore his all-around value.

Judge’s dominance is reflected in the betting markets, where he is a prohibitive favorite with odds as short as -5000 on some sportsbooks. His blend of power, plate discipline, and leadership has propelled the Yankees to a strong start, and his pursuit of a third MVP award looks well underway.

Behind Judge, Kansas City Royals shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. emerges as a strong contender. Witt, the 2024 AL batting champion, is a dynamic offensive and defensive force, combining a .332 average with Gold Glove-caliber defense. Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh also garners attention as a potential dark horse, especially if he can sustain his power numbers and become the first catcher to lead MLB in home runs since 2021.

Other notable AL candidates include Yordan Alvarez, Gunnar Henderson, and Jose Ramirez, each bringing unique skills that could disrupt Judge’s near-lock status if he falters or misses time.

National League MVP Favorites

The National League race is more open, though Los Angeles Dodgers two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani remains the favorite. Ohtani’s unique ability to impact games both as a hitter and a pitcher makes him a perennial MVP candidate. Even in seasons where he has pitched less, his offensive production keeps him in the conversation. His odds hover around -500, reflecting strong confidence in his continued excellence.

Rising stars like Chicago Cubs outfielder Pete Crow-Armstrong (+600 odds) and Arizona Diamondbacks outfielder Corbin Carroll (+2000) have emerged as exciting contenders, showcasing elite hitting and defensive prowess. Veterans like Mets’ Pete Alonso and Fernando Tatis Jr., along with Dodgers’ Freddie Freeman, remain in the mix, each capable of delivering MVP-caliber seasons.

Dark Horses and Emerging Threats

While Judge and Ohtani dominate headlines, the MVP race always includes under-the-radar candidates who could surge. Seattle Mariners’ Julio Rodriguez and Tampa Bay Rays’ Junior Caminero, both with long odds (+15000), have shown flashes of brilliance and could capitalize on opportunities to make a late-season push.

Additionally, players like Mike Trout and Vladimir Guerrero Jr., though battling injuries or inconsistent stretches, possess the talent to influence the race if they return to peak form.

Expert Insights

Former MLB player and analyst Paul Felder noted, “Judge’s combination of power and patience at the plate is unmatched right now. But the AL has several young stars who can challenge him if he hits a cold streak or gets injured.” On the NL side, ESPN’s Mike Greenberg remarked, “Ohtani’s two-way ability makes him a unique threat. But with the NL race more open, players like Crow-Armstrong and Carroll could surprise us.”

The 2025 MLB MVP race is a tale of two leagues: a near-certain favorite in Aaron Judge for the AL and a more competitive, wide-open battle in the NL with Shohei Ohtani leading the pack. As the season unfolds, the race will hinge on health, consistency, and clutch performances. Whether Judge’s historic pace continues or a dark horse emerges, baseball fans are in for an exciting summer of MVP-worthy performances.