Home Run Derby 2025: Who Are the Early Favorites to Win?

By Oliver Wiener June 20, 2025 07:02

The 2025 T-Mobile Home Run Derby, set for July 14 at Atlanta’s Truist Park, is shaping up to be an electrifying showcase of baseball’s premier power hitters. While fan favorites like Pete Alonso, Aaron Judge, and Shohei Ohtani remain top contenders, this year’s event also promises fresh faces eager to make their mark on one of the sport’s most thrilling spectacles.

Early Favorites: Established Sluggers Ready to Shine

Pete Alonso, the New York Mets’ two-time Derby champion, is once again among the favorites. Known as the “Polar Bear,” Alonso holds the all-time Derby home run record with 195 homers and boasts a career marked by prodigious power. His consistent bat speed and ability to launch towering home runs make him a perennial threat. Alonso’s experience in the Derby setting gives him a psychological edge, as he knows how to handle the pressure and pace of the contest.

Aaron Judge, fresh off leading the league in home runs for two of the past three seasons, is another early favorite. Judge’s imposing 6-foot-7 frame and elite bat speed have made him a home run machine, with 58 homers in the previous season alone. Shohei Ohtani, the two-way superstar, is also expected to participate, bringing his blend of power and precision to the Derby. Ohtani’s 54 home runs last season and his historic 50/50 season 50 home runs and 50 stolen bases underscore his unique athleticism and power-hitting prowess.

Rising Stars and First-Time Participants to Watch

While the veterans draw much attention, several young sluggers are poised to steal the spotlight as first-time Derby participants. MLB.com and Yahoo Sports writers have highlighted several exciting candidates:

Cal Raleigh (Seattle Mariners): Raleigh is on pace for the greatest power-hitting season by a catcher in decades, just one home run shy of breaking Johnny Bench’s 1970 record of 28 homers by a catcher before the All-Star break. Raleigh’s ability to switch-hit adds a unique dynamic to the Derby, potentially energizing the crowd with his “Big Dumper” nickname and electrifying power displays.
Oneil Cruz (Pittsburgh Pirates): Known for his elite contact quality and blazing 122.9 mph home run, Cruz leads all qualified hitters with a 96.6 mph average exit velocity and ranks second with a 23.6% barrel rate. At 26, Cruz is blossoming into a star, making him a perfect fit for the Derby’s power showcase.
Junior Caminero (Tampa Bay Rays): Just turning 22, Caminero boasts 100th percentile bat speed and raw power, with 17 home runs this season, the most on the Rays and fourth in the American League. His flair for dramatic, highlight-reel homers makes him an exciting Derby candidate.
Jac Caglianone (Kansas City Royals): Though new to the majors, Caglianone has demonstrated monster power with a 459-foot Triple-A homer and a 516-foot college blast. His raw power potential could make him a Derby sensation.
James Wood (Washington Nationals): At 22, Wood is on pace for a 40-homer season, combining size and power that could light up Truist Park.

What Makes a Derby Champion?

Success in the Home Run Derby often hinges on bat speed, stamina, and the ability to maintain rhythm under pressure. Statcast data shows that bat speed correlates strongly with home run distance and frequency. Gunnar Henderson, last year’s Derby participant, recorded some of the fastest bat speeds in MLB, rivaling stars like Judge and Ohtani. This year’s field promises similar elite talent.

Fan and Expert Perspectives

Brent Maguire of MLB.com emphasizes the excitement around fresh faces: “Cruz leads all qualified hitters with exit velocity and barrel rate, making him a breakout star perfect for the Derby stage.” Jordan Shusterman of Yahoo Sports adds, “Caminero’s raw power and flair for dramatic homers would electrify the crowd at Truist Park.”

The 2025 Home Run Derby is shaping up to be a thrilling blend of seasoned champions and rising stars. Veterans like Alonso, Judge, and Ohtani bring proven power and experience, while newcomers such as Raleigh, Cruz, and Caminero offer fresh excitement and raw power. As the Derby approaches, fans can expect a spectacular display of long balls and unforgettable moments at Atlanta’s Truist Park.