5 Most Interesting Bubble Teams Facing Tough Trade Deadline Choices

By Oliver Wiener July 09, 2025 09:30

With the July 31 MLB trade deadline fast approaching, a handful of bubble teams find themselves at a crossroads. Neither firmly entrenched contenders nor out-of-the-playoff-picture sellers, these squads must decide whether to buy to push for a postseason berth or sell to build for the future. Their decisions could reshape the playoff landscape and impact the trade market significantly. Here’s a look at five of the most intriguing bubble teams facing tough trade deadline choices in 2025.

1. Cincinnati Reds

The Reds have quietly positioned themselves in the wild-card hunt, buoyed by a strong June and the return of key players like Austin Hays. However, their ace Hunter Greene remains sidelined with a groin injury, and the offense awaits the return of Noelvi Marte. Ownership has been clear about avoiding big financial commitments, so the Reds’ “buying” might be limited to internal health and depth rather than blockbuster trades. As one insider put it, “The Reds need to avoid a July collapse that would push them into seller territory.” Their approach will likely hinge on whether Greene can return in time to bolster their rotation.

2. St. Louis Cardinals

Initially embracing 2025 as a “transition year” focused on youth development, the Cardinals have surprised many by staying competitive through the season’s first three months. Their trade deadline strategy remains uncertain. A strong July could keep them in buy mode, but a faltering stretch might trigger a sell-off involving veterans like Nolan Arenado (who has a full no-trade clause), Ryan Helsley, or Steven Matz. The Cardinals’ front office faces a delicate balancing act between contending now and building for the future.

3. Toronto Blue Jays

The Blue Jays sit solidly above .500 and are in the thick of the wild-card race, with a division title still within reach. Front office and coaching staff positions reportedly hang in the balance, adding urgency to their deadline decisions. Toronto is widely viewed as the most likely bubble team to be aggressive buyers, aiming to add pieces that can push them over the playoff threshold. A collapse in July could alter that calculus, but for now, the Jays appear ready to invest in their postseason push.

4. Tampa Bay Rays

Though firmly in playoff position, the Rays’ notoriously frugal ownership and cost-conscious front office make their trade deadline posture unpredictable. They typically operate with a “soft-sell” mentality, rarely making blockbuster moves even when in contention. Their main needs lie in bullpen depth and possibly outfield reinforcements. Unless July proves unkind, Tampa Bay is expected to keep a relatively quiet deadline, focusing on internal development and cost control rather than aggressive acquisitions.

5. Texas Rangers

The Rangers entered 2025 with high expectations but have hovered near .500 as the trade deadline approaches. Despite a positive run differential and a front office willing to take risks, their playoff chances remain precarious. To become notable buyers, the Rangers need to improve their July performance and stay within reach of the AL wild-card spots. Their “damn-the-torpedoes” approach suggests they could be active at the deadline, but only if they maintain momentum.

These bubble teams face complex decisions. Buying could mean investing in short-term success at the risk of future flexibility, while selling might sacrifice hope for 2025 playoff glory but accelerate rebuilding. As July unfolds, their performances will heavily influence whether they lean toward buyers or sellers.

As MLB analyst Brian Murphy noted, “Bubble teams are the wild cards of the trade deadline. Their moves can swing the playoff picture dramatically either by adding key pieces or by shedding veterans and prospects.”

With many squads separated by just a few games in the standings, the decisions these five teams make in the coming weeks will be among the most consequential and closely watched in the 2025 MLB trade season.