Surviving the Gauntlet: Do NBA Play-In Winners Stand a Chance in the Playoffs?

By Edcel Panganiban April 22, 2025 09:14

The NBA Play-In Tournament has become a postseason fixture since it was permanently introduced in 2021. The format pits the 7th through 10th-seeded teams in each conference against one another for the final two playoff spots, making the end of the regular season even more intense and allowing more teams to have a chance at the playoffs. The Play-In Tournament has certainly added some spice in terms of competitiveness and fan interest, but the No. 1 lingering question remains: Can the Play-In winners live—and die—in the NBA Playoffs?

Understanding the Play-In Format

The Play-In format is fairly straightforward, if not merciless. The 7th and 8th seeds go head to head, and the winner takes the 7th playoff spot. The 9 and 10 seeds also face off, but they have a much harder path: loser out, winner advances to battle the loser of the 7/8 seed game for the final 8 seed. In this format, no team can slack off in advance of the playoffs, as all Play-In games are essentially win-or-go-home.

Play-In Winners Facing an Uphill Battle

Making the playoffs as a 7th or 8th seed in itself is challenging. Before the Play-In, lower seeds have had a hard time advancing beyond the first round. The odds already against Play-In teams are greatly stacked higher with the added pressure of playing more games and one-and-done scenarios. These hurdles significantly lower the odds, according to Sportytrader's NBA picks, highlighting the uphill battle these teams face. SportyTrader is a reputable source of betting tips and picks for different sports.

Take the upcoming 2024–25 version of the Golden State Warriors, for instance. The sloppily pieced together team fought its way into the 7th seed in the Western Conference this season with a narrow 121–116 victory over the Memphis Grizzlies in a down-to-the-wire Play-In game. Stephen Curry and Jimmy Butler III dropped a 75-point explosion together that shows the elite talent Play-In teams are capable of, but the question remains — how long can that energy be maintained? The gritty win was great, no doubt. However, suppose the wear and tear from the Play-In limits the Warriors from bringing their full attack in a tough seven-gamer against a superior opponent like the Denver Nuggets or Oklahoma City Thunder. In that case, the great victory takes its hit.

Trends from the Past and the Present

Play-In teams have historically struggled to make deep playoff runs, though, to this point. No Play-In winner has made it out of the second round since the tournament began. Most, however, are knocked out quickly, though some teams most notably the 2021 Memphis Grizzlies have been able to win a game or two in the first round. This is for obvious reasons: fewer seeds means tougher opponents, less time to recover and adjust to matchups, and depth becomes critical to a competing team, one that Play-In teams are generally short on.

Of course, the Play-In has also brought an indisputable level of parity. Teams that were all but done away with in March finally have a desperate reason to slog it out through the end of the regular season. This has kept the fans engaged and made the playoff race more wild. Or, veteran teams with playoff experience – such as this season’s Warriors – can turn the Play-In into a boost rather than a blow.

What Will It Take to Survive?

That said, several stars need to align for any Play-In teams to do anything of note in the playoff round. Yes, you have to be an elite player, and fans have seen that in the likes of Curry and Butler. Secondly, the supporting cast has to be huge as well, and these cannot miss necessary game-back-to-backs. Third, coaching is of the utmost importance—swinging the hammer to make adjustments, and squeezing in those minutes can make or break your survival versus elimination.