How NIL and Revenue Sharing Are Changing NBA Draft Decisions for College Athletes

By Edcel Panganiban June 29, 2025 14:13

The landscape of college basketball and the NBA Draft is undergoing a seismic shift, driven largely by the growing influence of Name, Image, and Likeness (NIL) deals and emerging revenue-sharing models. These changes are reshaping how top prospects approach the pivotal decision of whether to enter the NBA Draft early or return to college, with significant implications for players, teams, and the draft itself.

Since the NCAA’s NIL policy took effect in July 2021, college athletes have gained the unprecedented ability to monetize their personal brands while still in school. This has created a lucrative alternative to jumping early to the NBA, especially for players projected outside the top 15 or 20 picks. According to recent data, the number of early entrants into the 2025 NBA Draft plummeted nearly 50% compared to 2024, with only 82 college players initially declaring, down from 162 the previous year. After withdrawal deadlines, just 32 remained, a stark contrast to 62 in 2024, signaling a clear trend of players opting to stay in college longer.

Detroit Pistons President of Basketball Operations Trajan Langdon highlighted the impact this has on draft talent, noting, “We had a couple of guys in early that went back to school. You take out 4-6 guys in a range like ours, it can affect the draft and maybe it falls off talent-wise at 32, 33, that would’ve fallen to 38 or 39”. This thinning of the draft pool, especially beyond the lottery, complicates team strategies and scouting efforts.

The financial calculus for players has changed dramatically. College athletes can now earn millions through NIL deals, with some programs boasting multi-million-dollar budgets to retain elite talent. For example, Alabama’s NIL collective reportedly offered Labaron Philon a deal rivaling what he might have earned as a late lottery pick, persuading him to return for another collegiate season. This scenario is echoed across other top programs, where players weigh the certainty of substantial NIL income against the uncertainty of draft position and rookie contracts.

As Duke head coach Jon Scheyer explained, “With all the money that’s being thrown around in NIL, you’re having a lot less players put their names in. You’re having pretty good players pulling their names out. Basically now if you’re an early entry and you’re not a top-20, top-22 pick where the money slots you can pretty much make that in college”. This dynamic encourages players to develop further in college, potentially improving their draft stock for future years while capitalizing financially.

The ripple effects extend beyond just early entrants. The 2025 NBA Draft’s second round is considered one of the weakest in recent memory, as many players who might have been second-round prospects choose to remain in school for NIL benefits. This challenges teams to rethink draft strategies, focusing more on first-round picks or alternative talent acquisition methods.

Moreover, the upcoming introduction of revenue sharing in college athletics promises to deepen these trends. Players may soon benefit from a share of overall program revenues, further incentivizing staying in college. This could lead to a longer average college tenure for top prospects, increasing the level of competition and readiness when they eventually enter the NBA.

While the NIL era empowers athletes financially and provides more control over their careers, it also alters traditional pathways. As former players and analysts note, the shift demands a new scouting philosophy, recognizing that prospects may be older, more polished, and better prepared but also that the draft pool is shallower.

NIL and revenue sharing are fundamentally changing NBA Draft decisions. College athletes now face a more complex choice: enter the draft early with uncertain financial prospects or stay in college to maximize NIL earnings and improve their draft stock. For NBA teams, this means navigating a leaner draft pool and adjusting talent evaluation strategies. As these trends evolve, the NBA and college basketball landscapes will continue to transform, with long-term impacts on player development and league competitiveness.