The Official Betting Picks from Couch Warrior Podcast Host Mike Kachan

This weekend, UFC 303 promises to deliver an unforgettable night of high-paced action. Headlined by the highly anticipated rematch between reigning champion Alex Pereira and the explosive Jiri Prochazka, the event is set to captivate fight fans around the globe. As both fighters are renowned for their knockout power and relentless styles, the main event is expected to be a thrilling spectacle from start to finish. With the added intrigue of short-notice adjustments and a card stacked with top-tier talent, UFC 303 is poised to be one of the most electrifying events of the year.

In this article I will go over my quick picks for each fight on the card as well as the bets I am making this week.

Quick Picks

Ricky Simon vs Vinicius de Oliveira

Pick: Ricky Simon by Decision or Submission

This fight is a classic striker vs grappler matchup. Oliveira boasts a ton of power and high level striking but has weak counter grappling and can give up minutes on the ground. Simon is liable to being knocked out but is a good striker in his own right and a high level wrestler. If Simon can survive the early flurries of Oliveira, he should be able to grind out a decision or snatch up a submission win using his grappling.

Rei Tsuruya vs Carlos Hernandez

Pick: Rei Tsuruya by Decision

Hernandez is a well rounded fighter with good striking and serviceable grappling, and is likely Tsuruya’s hardest opponent to date. However Tsuruya is a high level wrestler and grappler, and should be able to take down Hernandez early and often to win by decision.

Andrei Arlovski vs Martin Buday

Pick: Andrei Arlovski by Decision

Although Arlovski is getting up there in age and has been knocked out recently, he has still looked good in the striking and has been able to pick up wins over lesser competition. Buday is a bit limited in his game, finding most success in the clinch against smaller opponents. Arlovski should be able to escape any clinch initiations by Buday and outstrike him at range for a decision win.

Michelle Waterson vs Gillian Robertson

Pick: Michelle Waterson by Decision

Waterson is another fighter on this card who is up there in age and coming off of some losses, but this matchup should be one of her easier one's to date. Robertson is a high level BJJ practitioner, but her takedowns are only serviceable and her striking isn’t very good. Waterson has good takedown defense and should be able to keep this on the feet where she will have the superior striking.

Payton Talbott vs Yanis Ghemmouri

Pick: Payton Talbott by Knockout

Payton Talbott is one of the hottest prospects in the sport right now and for good reason. Coming off of a very impressive knockout win over fellow prospect Cameron Saaimon, Talbott is a force to be reckoned with. He is an elite striker with very high output and fast hands. Ghemmouri is a good fighter in his own right, and could possibly find some grappling success here as Talbott doesn’t have the best takedown defense. That said, Ghemmouri doesn’t throw many strikes and is very hittable. Talbott should be able to stuff most of the takedowns coming his way and find a knockout in the second or third round.

Jean Silva vs Charles Jourdain

Pick: Jean Silva by Decision

This fight on paper is easily one of the most exciting fights on the card. Both guys prefer to stand and strike, and both are dynamic high volume strikers who are durable and can take a punch. While both will have their moments, Jean Silva seems to be a bit cleaner of a striker with more weapons in his arsenal.

Cub Swanson vs Andre Fili

Pick: Cub Swanson by Decision

Swanson is 40 years old but the skills are clearly still there, with him coming off of an impressive win over Hakeem Dawodu. Both fighters are well rounded, and Fili will have a possible wrestling path. However Swanson has good takedown defense, good get ups, and crisp boxing. He throws more than Fili, and should be able to keep the fight on the feet and outstrike Fili at range.

Joseph Pyfer vs Marc-Andre Barriault

Pick: Joseph Pyfer by Knockout or Submission

Pyfer is another hot prospect on this card. He is coming off of a loss in his first UFC main event against Jack Hermansson, but that was a big step up in competition. Now he is going up against Barriault who is a good well rounded fighter with high output and solid striking, but poor striking and takedown defense. Pyfer is a good striker who packs a ton of power, and he has underrated wrestling and BJJ. Pyfer should be able to catch Barriault on the feet or take him down and submit him.

Ian Garry vs Michael Page

Pick: Ian Garry by Decision or Submission

Ian Garry is undefeated with a 14-0 record and has been a menace in the UFC so far. Page was a Bellator veteran with a 22-2 record and beat Kevin Holland in impressive fashion in his UFC debut. While Page is an elite striker with movement that makes him hard to deal with, Garry is also a very clean striker with better output. On top of that, Page doesn’t have the best takedown defense or get ups. Garry has underrated grappling and has been training at Chute Boxe with Charles Oliveira and other high level grapplers. Garry should be able to keep it competitive on the feet, mixing in takedowns to either score a submission or win a decision.

Mayra Bueno Silva vs Macy Chiasson

Pick: Mayra Bueno Silva by Submission

While Chiasson is huge for the weight class and has improved leaps and bounds over the last few years, she isn’t very defensively sound. She is a solid wrestler but when she shoots for takedowns she leaves her neck out, which makes her vulnerable to front chokes. Silva has great BJJ and front chokes in particular, and should be able to catch Chiasson sooner or later. 

Anthony Smith vs Roman Dolidze

Pick: Anthony Smith by Decision

Although Smith has taken a lot of damage over the years and is liable to being knocked out by big power punchers like Dolidze, he should have the tools he needs to win this fight. Dolidze has poor cardio on a full camp, which he didn’t get here as he is coming in on short notice as a replacement for Carlos Ulberg. He has low output on the feet, and while he has elite BJJ, his wrestling isn’t the best. He’s also been a weight class down at Middleweight for several years now, and has never fought a UFC Light Heavyweight the size of Smith. On top of that, he has poor takedown defense. Smith will throw more on the feet and should be able to score takedowns whenever he wants to, grinding out a decision win.

Brian Ortega vs Diego Lopes

Pick: Brian Ortega by Decision 

This fight is very exciting and should be one of the higher paced fights on the card. Lopes is on a three fight win streak with all three wins coming in the first round. He is a good striker with a ton of power and a high level BJJ game. However, he is very hittable and his takedown defense isn’t very good. The blueprint on how to beat him is out there, as we saw in the Evloev and Brito matchups that if you can take him down and defend his submission attempts, you can neutralise him and win minutes on the ground. Ortega’s striking has come a long way, he is super durable, and has high level BJJ of his own. If he can survive the early onslaught from Lopes, he should be able to do what Brito and Evloev did, taking Lopes down early and often to win a decision.

Alex Pereira vs Jiri Prochazka

Pick: Jiri Prochazka by Knockout or Submission

This main event rematch is an absolute banger. As we saw in their first fight, Prochazka has the tools he needs to win this fight, he just needs to be better defensively. His output is higher than Pereira’s, and he has the power to knock Pereira out. Pereira is weak in the grappling department, and if Prochazka feels that the striking isn’t going his way, he can mix in some takedowns to win minutes or find a submission. However, Prochazka has poor striking defense, and Pereira will be live for a knockout as long as the fight remains standing.

Mike’s Bets

Ian Garry Moneyline -155 (DraftKings)

Cub Swanson Moneyline +200 (Fanduel)

Mayra Bueno Silva Submission +375 (BetRivers)

Andrei Arlovski Decision Only +165 (DraftKings)

Anthony Smith Decision Only +115 (Draftkings)

Carlos Hernandez/Rei Tsuruya Fight Goes the Distance +155 (BetRivers)

Jiri Prochazka/Alex Pereira Under 2.5 Rounds -160 (DraftKings)