NFL Draft Rumor: J.J. McCarthy might fall out of the first round

NFL Draft Rumor: J.J. McCarthy might fall out of the firs...

By Oliver Wiener April 25, 2024 16:26

J.J. McCarthy is one of the highly anticipated prospects heading into the 2024 NFL Draft. With a strong college career at Michigan capped by a national title, McCarthy has garnered plenty of attention as a potential NFL prospect. In this article, we'll analyze McCarthy's skill set, evaluate his potential draft position, and explore the notion that although some have him as a top 5 pick in this years draft, he might fall out of the first round.

Overview of J.J. McCarthy's College Career and Scouting Report

J.J. McCarthy's college career at Michigan was certainly impressive, with a final record of 27-1, two Big Ten titles, and a national championship. McCarthy is acknowledged for his consistency in delivering the ball on time and to the correct read, making him a suitable fit for a Shanahan or McVay-tree scheme due to his ability to operate with timing and anticipation. He has also been praised for his above-average athleticism, arm talent, and outstanding accuracy and ball placement. However, his weaknesses, including being a one-speed thrower, overstriding, and his deep ball lacking juice, have been noted as areas for improvement.

McCarthy's Draft Projection and Potential Teams

Despite being considered a raw prospect, McCarthy is projected to be a Round 1 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. However, there are indications that McCarthy might not be drafted in the first round. The Arizona Cardinals, Green Bay Packers, and Los Angeles Rams are expected to be the busiest teams in terms of selecting players in the 2024 NFL Draft, with each of them having a league-high 11 picks. Arizona, especially, has two first-round picks, which might make them a potential landing spot for McCarthy.

McCarthy's Strengths and Weaknesses

Strengths

McCarthy's strengths lie in his ability to make throws over the middle of the field, earning a 91.2 passing grade and an 85.6% adjusted completion percentage in 2023, ranking among the top quarterbacks in the FBS1. Additionally, his craftiness within the pocket and athletic prowess, being used on designed runs at Michigan, make him a versatile player1. McCarthy's youth and college success for multiple seasons also position him favorably as a prospect2.

Weaknesses

One of McCarthy's primary weaknesses lies in his accuracy when throwing outside of the numbers, recording a 27.1% uncatchable throw rate on such throws in 2023, ranking 48th out of 105 eligible FBS quarterbacks1. Furthermore, his lack of consistency when needing to progress past his first read and his tendency to stare down his first read are areas of concern1. The criticism surrounding McCarthy's passing instincts, field vision, and decision-making further adds to the concerns that NFL teams might have3.

Potential Reasons for Not Being Drafted in the First Round

Competition in the Draft

The competition in the 2024 NFL Draft is fierce, with other top quarterbacks like Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, and Drake Maye also vying for early selections. The presence of these high-profile quarterbacks might lead to McCarthy being overlooked in the first round, especially considering the depth of talent available.

Physical Limitations

McCarthy's physical attributes, such as his weight and arm talent, have been cited as potential limitations. At 202 pounds, McCarthy's light frame is a concern, especially given that he isn't considered an elite athlete. Additionally, his one-speed throwing and struggles with adding arc and touch when necessary might raise doubts about his ability to excel at the NFL level.

Need for Development

While McCarthy possesses elite upside due to his tools, he is also considered a raw prospect. His need to develop off-speed throws, improve touch, and address inconsistencies in decision-making and accuracy might make teams hesitant to invest a first-round pick in him, opting instead for more polished prospects.

Conclusion

In conclusion, J.J. McCarthy is a promising quarterback prospect with notable strengths in his game. However, his overall physical limitations, coupled with the competitive landscape of the 2024 NFL Draft, suggest he might fall out of the first round come draft night. While there is no question that he has the potential to make an impact in the NFL, teams might prioritize more developed prospects or opt for other positions in the first round. Ultimately, McCarthy's draft position will depend on how teams evaluate his potential for growth and weigh it against the immediate impact they seek from their early picks.